a daily price action early hour update - usd/chf
Good morning and i hope you are well.
USD/CHF
bull case: Bulls want the breakout of the triangle and bear channel here to test the 2023-11 and afterwards the 2023-10 high. The rally looks good enough that they can get it. Measured move target is right in between those 2 targets. If they can get the breakout, the market cycle changes from bear trend to trading range and the downside will probably be limited. Since this is a 20+ year bear channel, it has to find a bottom eventually right?
bear case: Bears need to step in here to keep it inside the bear channel or the targets given above are very high probability. Since this is the third touch of the upper bear trend line, odds are not all that great to break it on the first try here. Ranging here is more probable but for that, bears need to print bear bars and right now there are none. First target for the bears is to stop the rally and then print back below 0.872.
short term: odds favor sideways but rally is strong and i would not do anything here unless the bulls keep printing strong bars, then it's clearly continuation of long
medium-long term: sideways. markets do not go from trend to trend, bottoms and tops are formed over a period before a new trend emerges
USD/CHF
bull case: Bulls want the breakout of the triangle and bear channel here to test the 2023-11 and afterwards the 2023-10 high. The rally looks good enough that they can get it. Measured move target is right in between those 2 targets. If they can get the breakout, the market cycle changes from bear trend to trading range and the downside will probably be limited. Since this is a 20+ year bear channel, it has to find a bottom eventually right?
bear case: Bears need to step in here to keep it inside the bear channel or the targets given above are very high probability. Since this is the third touch of the upper bear trend line, odds are not all that great to break it on the first try here. Ranging here is more probable but for that, bears need to print bear bars and right now there are none. First target for the bears is to stop the rally and then print back below 0.872.
short term: odds favor sideways but rally is strong and i would not do anything here unless the bulls keep printing strong bars, then it's clearly continuation of long
medium-long term: sideways. markets do not go from trend to trend, bottoms and tops are formed over a period before a new trend emerges