Is the 'Banco de Mexico' 's program going to be enough?
On December 8th 2015, the Mexican central bank reinstated its intervention program to add liquidity to the market every time volatility reach the 1.5% threshold.
Since then, the Bank sold 200 millions u$ 8 times.
Since the program was not enough, the bank decreased the threshold from 1.5% to 1% last week and also rescheduled all of its interest rate decision meeting to one day after the FOMC. Many think that they will increase at the same pace as the Federal Reserve do.
A potential strategy for now is to short the USDMXN every time the 1% volatility threshold is reached (High - Open) / Open and hold the trade for one day only.
The longer term bias is still long but be careful, the bank has approximately the equivalent of 184 u$ Billions in foreign reserve (not including its credit line with the IMF) and has declared many times that additional measures could be added if required.
I also highlighted the central bank intervention during the previous program between 2011 and 2013 so you can see the effectiveness of the latter.
Since then, the Bank sold 200 millions u$ 8 times.
Since the program was not enough, the bank decreased the threshold from 1.5% to 1% last week and also rescheduled all of its interest rate decision meeting to one day after the FOMC. Many think that they will increase at the same pace as the Federal Reserve do.
A potential strategy for now is to short the USDMXN every time the 1% volatility threshold is reached (High - Open) / Open and hold the trade for one day only.
The longer term bias is still long but be careful, the bank has approximately the equivalent of 184 u$ Billions in foreign reserve (not including its credit line with the IMF) and has declared many times that additional measures could be added if required.
I also highlighted the central bank intervention during the previous program between 2011 and 2013 so you can see the effectiveness of the latter.