Is usdtry longterm trading range has expiredd ?

Since sept '15 usdtry is in wave IV(red count) which could be :

1)Flat IV sub-waves ABC has been finished then bullish wave(3) is expected (black count).
2)Triangle IV sub-waves ABCDE has been finished then bullish wave-3 expected (blue count).
3)Flat IV as Double three WXYXZ then bearish sub-wave Z is going on (orange count).

Usdtry may extract from this long term trading range.
Invalidation level for count 1) & 2) is 2.8362.