USDTRY Short Setup for 2022

Hello.

After succesfully predicting the Lira Crash this year (see related Idea below) i present to you my USDTRY short setup.

Note: When "Knife catching" i got to be REALLY conservative with my targets, especially with using leverage. This is the absolute worst case for Lira. I give this a 40% propability to actually reaching this target.
If you are Turkish and looking to buy back real Lira i dont advice going for this target but to buy back lira in steps from here. This setup is more targeted for leveraged trading. DYOR.

Lira is loosing value exponentially on a multi year time frame.
For Context how i came up with this targets (red line and green curve) see picture below.

Theoretically Lira could also break out of the exponential down Trend but likely not if Erdogan is still President.
Exponentiall Lira Support should be arround my Short Zone but as i said, this short target is pretty Conservative as its targeted to leverage trading.

Please leave a like if you liked this and as always: do your own research =)

Комментарий:

This is how i got the Short target, i connected USDTRY´s historic local tops.
The support seems to be a Curve which suggests that Lira is exponentially loosing Value.

Комментарий:

I would short the red line, dependend on how long it takes USDTRY to get there i put a rather big range. If Lira gets up there today it would be 18usd, if it reaches there in march for example it would be 19USD etc..

Комментарий:

Altho it could be worth it, i dont recommend longing USDTRY. That train left the station. If you have a long open from lower prices you could leave some open tho. dyor.

Комментарий:

last part usually goes very fast, get ready for a fast capitulation before lira recovering soon

Комментарий:

we could reach my zone today...worst case next week

Комментарий:

17.5 - 18.5 USD is what im tageting if we reach it today.

Комментарий:

target nearly reached :) lets see if this will get successful, lookign good so far

Комментарий:

if you´re looking to buy back spot lira. this is a good time according to my TA. DYOR

Комментарий:

not sure if top or 1 more leg..

Комментарий:

i would expect a big sell off after top, which didnt happen yet.
So i propably think we wil go one more leg up next week. dyor

Комментарий:

I put up my analysis of turkish index prognosis and expect a -50% decline in turkish stocks soon.

Сделка активна:

lower end of short zone is reached, it could go to the very high of the zone. Trading is active, im personaly ladder buying shorts here.

Комментарий:

According to my TryEur chart (my main pair for charting lira) theres room for another 10%, so touching my very top of the zone is definitely possible.

When there´s a 10% decline soon in USDTRY i think top happened.

Комментарий:

^ worst case, top could happening anytime here, max would be my Short zone upper line

Комментарий:

Cheers, trade worked. There could be a 2nd test but this was the reaction i was hoping for!

Комментарий:

This is what the Capitulation looked like in 2018, there was a 2nd test of the "Resistance Zone". We could do that again but thats pretty speculative.
I recommend holding the shorts through this if a second resistacne retest comes.

Комментарий:

well retest is out of the card now, USDTRY dropped too deep. Cant believe i nailed this chart so good haha :D

Комментарий:

If Lira manages to break the green Curve it could get even really bullish, but i will personaly close the trade at green curve and not bet on that outcome (could take some months).

Комментарий:

So, Green curve is my main target which may take some Weeks/Months. I will update this thread if Lira does something unexpected until then.

Комментарий:

Im taking massive profits at this green line next time we test them. This could be the lowest USDTRY goes. Propably going Sideway from here on for month´s

Комментарий:

Sideway between 11-14.6USD until we eventually touch Green Curve late next year is most likely.

Комментарий:

honestly didnt expect a lira recovery this fast lol

Комментарий:

Arround 10 i will close my whole short, could go a little lower, depended when we will arrive there.

Сделка закрыта: достигнута тейк-профит цена:

im closing this Idea. a have a new long setup with entry at white zone if you are interested:

Комментарий:

By the way i dont think cryptocurrency are a good store of value, so i dont recommend changing lira to crypto.

And also stay away from Tether (USDT), better use USDC.

Комментарий:

expecting usdtry to go down soon, last time it took 9 weeks before going down (yellow circle), which would equal ~21.02.22

Комментарий:

I have to assume that we make new ATH on USDTRY as Erdogan is still increasing money supply with fast pace. Put up a new USDTRY Idea: