Based on the reaction last week, we saw a larger draw from EIA then what API predicted and we still saw a sell off, indicating that the bears definitely want to have one more swing at the lows here.
Of course API and EIA could drastically change the trading plan but at the current time, I don't see oil heading back up from here. DM- over the DM+ with ADX pointing back up, huge sell volume on the past daily bars. MACD also showing signs that its pointing back down as well.
If looking to long, either wait to see if it can close above the 44.50-44-60 Level for a long with a tight stop slighly below this level. Huge resistance on Friday as it struggled to get above these levels. Target would be 45's by Tuesday, getting out before API and EIA data.
The more likely scenario is that we keep moving down from here to test lows to finish the final leg down before the bullish seasonality of Crude finally kicks in and we see the last of these lows.
Of course API and EIA could drastically change the trading plan but at the current time, I don't see oil heading back up from here. DM- over the DM+ with ADX pointing back up, huge sell volume on the past daily bars. MACD also showing signs that its pointing back down as well.
If looking to long, either wait to see if it can close above the 44.50-44-60 Level for a long with a tight stop slighly below this level. Huge resistance on Friday as it struggled to get above these levels. Target would be 45's by Tuesday, getting out before API and EIA data.
The more likely scenario is that we keep moving down from here to test lows to finish the final leg down before the bullish seasonality of Crude finally kicks in and we see the last of these lows.
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Entry for the flip long*
If it attempts to but doesn't quite make another low we can be confident to buy around 42.60s
Really just depends on price action when numbers come out next week.