MAJOR SHORTS INCOMING - FULL GOLD ANALYSIS (including Weekly)
Hellloo Fellow Traders! :wave:
i've been calling this short for a while now due to believing that the corrective structure on the weekly is complete.
However instead of the Impulsive Short Waves beginning, it appears that we have created a wedge/triangle/diagonal pattern as a transition play.
As i see this area as being the end of the bigger B corrective, this wedge pattern (Above) is created to now start the shorts.
See Below for Weekly/Monthly Chart:
I have identified this E point as the end of the pattern an beginning of the Elliot Waves going down.
Now a lot of traders are looking at the current pattern as a BULL FLAG. A lot of traders will be entering in for an E point buy entry at the bottom of this wedge, however i believe that price will continue to fall which is a perfect opportunity for the smart money and institutional traders to get in on the opposite side(Short) of all the retail buy (long) orders.
Now to dispel the myth that a lot of traders think that "this is a wave 4 for a final wave 5 push up".
I don't believe so as the "bull run" that we had was a corrective ABC move and NOT an impulsive 5 wave. This is where a lot of traders will get caught out as their conviction is to the long side.
Traders are thinking this:
I think this as we are in a CORRECTIVE pattern and therefore corrective patterns run in ABCs.
Since i believe we are at a point where the B corrective on the weekly is complete, we will look into more a medium-longer term downtrend with the final C leg down (Impulsive 5 wave or diagonal down)
As added confluence, we have broken below the 4 hour Head & Shoulder's Neckline with multiple tests and breaks below. This adds to the probability that we'll see moves down to at least the minimum target being that red vertical line which coincides with our short analysis.
I'll be looking to hold these major shorts.
Please LIKE and FOLLOW if you enjoyed my analysis. I would really appreciate it!! :D
i've been calling this short for a while now due to believing that the corrective structure on the weekly is complete.
However instead of the Impulsive Short Waves beginning, it appears that we have created a wedge/triangle/diagonal pattern as a transition play.
As i see this area as being the end of the bigger B corrective, this wedge pattern (Above) is created to now start the shorts.
See Below for Weekly/Monthly Chart:
I have identified this E point as the end of the pattern an beginning of the Elliot Waves going down.
Now a lot of traders are looking at the current pattern as a BULL FLAG. A lot of traders will be entering in for an E point buy entry at the bottom of this wedge, however i believe that price will continue to fall which is a perfect opportunity for the smart money and institutional traders to get in on the opposite side(Short) of all the retail buy (long) orders.
Now to dispel the myth that a lot of traders think that "this is a wave 4 for a final wave 5 push up".
I don't believe so as the "bull run" that we had was a corrective ABC move and NOT an impulsive 5 wave. This is where a lot of traders will get caught out as their conviction is to the long side.
Traders are thinking this:
I think this as we are in a CORRECTIVE pattern and therefore corrective patterns run in ABCs.
Since i believe we are at a point where the B corrective on the weekly is complete, we will look into more a medium-longer term downtrend with the final C leg down (Impulsive 5 wave or diagonal down)
As added confluence, we have broken below the 4 hour Head & Shoulder's Neckline with multiple tests and breaks below. This adds to the probability that we'll see moves down to at least the minimum target being that red vertical line which coincides with our short analysis.
I'll be looking to hold these major shorts.
Please LIKE and FOLLOW if you enjoyed my analysis. I would really appreciate it!! :D
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As i wrote about above regarding the fact that a lot of traders will be buying at the E point of the bottom of the wedge (expecting a big move up for the final wave 5), this is what i meant.
Red Circles are where a lot of traders will get in. However price will either pierce straight through or give a bounce up (probably with some reversal candle sticks patterns) and get even more traders in/increased positions before price decides to break through the bottom through a continuation of his downtrend.
Be very careful of this if you are a hardcore bull :)
Red Circles are where a lot of traders will get in. However price will either pierce straight through or give a bounce up (probably with some reversal candle sticks patterns) and get even more traders in/increased positions before price decides to break through the bottom through a continuation of his downtrend.
Be very careful of this if you are a hardcore bull :)
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I think this, ABC correction with it probably retesting the other side of this trend line to complete wave 2 followed by the drop. PS: disregard that weird blue candle, something wrong with that chart.
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Possible entry for the short:
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Possible short entry if it drops after testing here
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Lets see if it breaks here
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^^ Sorry, here
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Re-adjusted Triangle:
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Now i'm waiting to see if this was a false breakout, still reject off the 61.8% and break back below that sloping trendline which i want to see it show on the larger time frame like the 1 hour.
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If downward pressue and shorts start coming in then this will drop. We have a double tap off the bottom side of this trendline that was acting as support, now as resistance. An indication of a trend change. Now let's see how price starts reacting.
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Looks like it may be coming..
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Sorry Photo**
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I'm going to sleep guys, have a great day/night!! :)
Wait for 1 hour candle to close and then look at price action
Wait for 1 hour candle to close and then look at price action
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Good morning everyone :)
On the 4 hour, that yellow highlighted candle is indecision and indicating a trading range within the smaller time frames.
Now let's see how the new 4 hour candle moves.
If it goes back up we could possibilty see a 3rd tap and/or even a smaller double top to indicate and confirm more of the trend reversal.
Otherwise, if this 4 hour candle closes bearish we could see further price falls.
On the 4 hour, that yellow highlighted candle is indecision and indicating a trading range within the smaller time frames.
Now let's see how the new 4 hour candle moves.
If it goes back up we could possibilty see a 3rd tap and/or even a smaller double top to indicate and confirm more of the trend reversal.
Otherwise, if this 4 hour candle closes bearish we could see further price falls.
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If this trendline is valid (within this range) then that fail breakout indicates a possible short position. Price could disregard it and continue ranging but i personally would add another small position with tihgt stop above that mini high it created.
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Nope, above was invalid.
We are ranging. Wait for a break below for any additional short positions.
We are ranging. Wait for a break below for any additional short positions.
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Remember to stick to your risk management rules. WE MUST have rules in this. We are either speculating (which requires rules). Without rules, we are GAMBLING.
If you're serious about this then best to act so like a professional.
If you're serious about this then best to act so like a professional.
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Could possibly breakout here.
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If it doesn't break then the range will continue.
Short on good break of range. place a tight stop loss, low position size. If it does reverse on you, so what! Re-enter with another opportunity.
Short on good break of range. place a tight stop loss, low position size. If it does reverse on you, so what! Re-enter with another opportunity.
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I’m out guys but I tried to upload a screenshot over. Hope you can all see it.
15 min trading range. Decent short position at its most recent “high” with minimal stop loss. Let’s wait for it to break below as it could still be ranging.
How ever if u get in, wait until price goes down below, near support levels again and then move your stop to breakeven.
ibb.co/KX9Vz6M
15 min trading range. Decent short position at its most recent “high” with minimal stop loss. Let’s wait for it to break below as it could still be ranging.
How ever if u get in, wait until price goes down below, near support levels again and then move your stop to breakeven.
ibb.co/KX9Vz6M
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We're still consolidating/ranging:
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Price broke above. I'm waiting for a 3rd tap off that sloping resistance trendline or against the new trendline, at the 61.8% retracement.
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Great Short Position:
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Bar getting stronger
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61.8% retracement which is what i'm looking for.The previous false breakout and then a bounce off the 61.8% shows validity to me.
Trendline holding strong. Still has some upside room if it wants to go up but this position of the trendline seems strong.
Trendline holding strong. Still has some upside room if it wants to go up but this position of the trendline seems strong.
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Strong bear candle on the close of this 30 min will reveal a lot.
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BIG possible false breakout move to the upside. 4 hour candle close will reveal a lot. Let's look at the 2 hour aswell after this.
I have redrawn the trendline and we can see 3 taps to as resistance.
What i'm a wary of is if price bounces up from this smaller trendline and uses it as support to bounce up.
I have redrawn the trendline and we can see 3 taps to as resistance.
What i'm a wary of is if price bounces up from this smaller trendline and uses it as support to bounce up.
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The 2 blue positions. Each has a case for a short or long.
For the short side: looking for price to start shifting/transitioning trends based upon my two trendlines indicating short side.
3 taps off both resistance trend lines.
Long side: Following upward structure of price continuing up.
I am wary of the fact that this ABC correctiong going up hasn't completed and it's still got some room to move? Why? because price didn't show an elliot wave style impulsive move in my opinion.
We may see the transitioning of the end of this final C leg or still a little more room left for the C leg.
moves.
For the short side: looking for price to start shifting/transitioning trends based upon my two trendlines indicating short side.
3 taps off both resistance trend lines.
Long side: Following upward structure of price continuing up.
I am wary of the fact that this ABC correctiong going up hasn't completed and it's still got some room to move? Why? because price didn't show an elliot wave style impulsive move in my opinion.
We may see the transitioning of the end of this final C leg or still a little more room left for the C leg.
moves.
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Possible area of resistance. Coincides with the final leg of C and area of the trend. Could be it if the traders/market partcipants decide that this is the end of the TOP of channel/diagonal/wedge and therefore time to fall. If it is, time to short.
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also see a triangle style of pattern with a cheeky, quick ending.
Very possible switch of trends/directions here.
Very possible switch of trends/directions here.
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I call these a possible "transitioning pattern" for a reversal. It works in definite reversal spots. I could be wrong and price could break above all of these resistance zones. We shall see :)
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Double top reversal pattern
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Waiting for price to begin breaking below these red support trend lines to give more and more confirmation of further short moves. Look for down trending structural moves to give confirmation. Ie. Breaking support, testing resistance, trendlines, supply/demand zones.
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Sorry guys i forgot to post!! I just came back from the gym and opened my screen to this. Once again, we've touched the opposite side of another trend, testing it as resistance. I believe this is a transition stage where we'll eventual turn from this intermediate uptrend/correction (in my eyes, the END of the correction phase and start of a downtrend)
As you can see from a few days ago (Black trendline)
that we've had MULTIPLE taps off the other side of the trendline testing as resistance (much cleaner on the bigger time frames)
Must take a shower and resume my morning routine before coming back for further analysis.
I believe we can begin counting the elliot waves from here. Thus far wave 2 is complete and valid as it did not retracement more than 100% of wave 1.
Let's count and get those entries. IF you do wish to enter, you can. Above the wick of wave 2 or if you wish to be safer then above wave 0.
Either way, REMEMBER always that you adjust your position size and risk based upon your risk management rules.
As you can see from a few days ago (Black trendline)
that we've had MULTIPLE taps off the other side of the trendline testing as resistance (much cleaner on the bigger time frames)
Must take a shower and resume my morning routine before coming back for further analysis.
I believe we can begin counting the elliot waves from here. Thus far wave 2 is complete and valid as it did not retracement more than 100% of wave 1.
Let's count and get those entries. IF you do wish to enter, you can. Above the wick of wave 2 or if you wish to be safer then above wave 0.
Either way, REMEMBER always that you adjust your position size and risk based upon your risk management rules.
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What's my view? LONG TERM HOLD!!! We will count the waves and follow.
I will perform a larger view/time frame analysis soon. Please follow this chart idea for updates and follow me incase i upload a fresh new chart idea.
I will perform a larger view/time frame analysis soon. Please follow this chart idea for updates and follow me incase i upload a fresh new chart idea.
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Just noticed that my blue downward sloping trendline was misplaced for some reason.. I just corrected it.
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I always try to have a simplified version of the chart i'm looking at aswell.
I drew this up over the weekend, another perspective of it. Has broken the trendline (Can draw that trendline in a number of ways, regardless of how you draw it, i see it as broken - with more probability)
Therefore i am waiting on the following moves in the interm.
A little pullback or a continuation of downward movement, trending nature (breaking of support structures)
I drew this up over the weekend, another perspective of it. Has broken the trendline (Can draw that trendline in a number of ways, regardless of how you draw it, i see it as broken - with more probability)
Therefore i am waiting on the following moves in the interm.
A little pullback or a continuation of downward movement, trending nature (breaking of support structures)
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We've got 2 pullback zones that I'm looking at for now.
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I had this in mind. We are at our extremes and looking for price to reject off this area, especially on the higher time frame which gives us more validity and time for the pattern to form/complete.
4 hour. Let's observe how price reacts off this point. I thought that there may be a last C leg remaining in this final stretch we have here.
4 hour. Let's observe how price reacts off this point. I thought that there may be a last C leg remaining in this final stretch we have here.
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3rd tap will be nice.
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This may be the start of THE BIG SHORT!
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The Extreme of the current area if there is to be a fall now. Possibility of a little extra move above but i'm looking at this position at the moment.
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I see this area of opportunity within the spaces of these trendlines.
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And another tap here on the black trendline before the drop
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