What changes in the price of gold at the beginning of the month?

The world gold price continued to increase slightly today due to the tough monetary policy stance of the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

Kevin Grady, President of Phoenix Futures and Options, said that gold prices remained at current levels, despite the reaction to upcoming economic data. Just a small sign of economic weakness will also support gold prices. In the near term, the gold market will pay attention to the US nonfarm payrolls data for July.

Lukman Otunuga, chief market analyst at FXTM, said the Fed's stance depends on economic data and the Fed wants a cooling of the labor market as a condition for controlling inflation. While gold is particularly sensitive to the jobs report.

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In a recent report, the US Department of Labor said that the economy created 209,000 jobs in June. This is the first time the employment data has failed to meet expectations since May 2022.

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The world gold market in the first trading session of the week was relatively quiet due to the lack of information to promote the market. Currently, investors are waiting for the jobs report in July for more clues about the next monetary policy path of the US Federal Reserve.

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Nonfarm payrolls numbers are expected to rise to 200,000 jobs, compared with a gain of 209,000 in the June report.

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Recently, despite the "hawkish" stance of the Fed and positive economic data, gold continues to hold solid support around $1,950 an ounce.

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The Fed's stance is dependent on economic data, and the Fed wants the labor market to cool as a condition for controlling inflation, said Lukman Otunuga, director of market analysis at FXTM. While gold is particularly sensitive to the jobs report.

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According to Otunuga, future data will play a key role in determining whether the Fed will raise rates for the last time in 2023.

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He said that if the upcoming US jobs report is weaker than economists' expectations, gold will rise to $ 1,985 an ounce. If this threshold is conquered, gold is likely to head towards $2,000/ounce.

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Gold prices rebounded after China released the July manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) at 49.3 points, slightly higher than the forecast of 49.2 and the monthly figures. before was 49 points.

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This is the fourth consecutive month that China's manufacturing PMI has fallen from a March peak of 58.2 points.

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According to technical analysis, PMI falls below 50 points, which means China's manufacturing sector is shrinking.

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According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the sector shows weakness in China's manufacturing activity, in addition to the impact of external factors limiting orders, the internal production units still exist. weaknesses, although the Government of this country has lifted measures to prevent the Covid-19 epidemic since January.

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Today, the European Economic Area announced GDP growth in the second quarter of 2023 increased by 0.3%, higher than the forecast of 0.2% and higher than the 0% rate of the first quarter of 2023.

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According to analysts, the European economy has escaped the recession after the previous two quarters of weakness. However, economies in this region still show many concerns, such as persistent inflation, geopolitical tensions, and high interest rates.

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According to analysts, gold prices jumped today as investors moved away from the "greenback" after the European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates, helping the euro appreciate against the US dollar.

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Data showing higher economic growth in Europe and a slight softening in inflation, a stronger euro and a weaker dollar have helped strengthen gold, said Carlo Alberto De Casa, market analyst at Kinesis Money. short-term recovery. The risk of a recession and the expectation that central banks will be more dovish next year are the main catalysts supporting gold prices.

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It is only a matter of time before the US Central Bank starts pumping money back into financial markets to keep the economy from falling into recession. When that happens, fear will increase in the market and push gold prices higher.

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In the morning session on August 2, spot gold price increased 0.28% to $1,948.9 per ounce according to kitco. Gold price for December delivery also increased 0.38% to $1,986.25.

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Survey data showed credit conditions continue to tighten, although concerns from the banking crisis in May have eased. This leaves economists and investors feeling anxious about the possible slowdown in the US economy in the future.

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According to Shah, if recession fears materialize, gold futures prices will rise. In this scenario, gold can reach $2490/ounce. That number would be 22% above the nominal all-time high (reached in August 2020) and close to that number in real terms. However, it would be 28% below the all-time high reached in 1980.

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According to the WGC, gold prices hit a record average price of $1,976 an ounce, up 6% from the second quarter of 2022 and up 4% from the previous record high reported in the third quarter of 2020.

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In an interview with Kitco News, Juan Carlos Artigas, head of research at WGC, said the banking crisis in May with the collapse of several regional banks in the US had ended demand. gold lining material and coins in North America. He added that the fact that global uncertainty is supporting jewelry sales in key markets like China.