Gold is overbought at the strong 2050 resistance

As expected, the level of 2050 was reached after the breakout of 2010. I never thought it will happen so fast, but it happend.
Now there is a huge imbalance near the 2050 resistance and I expect several pullbacks and even a change in trend soon.

The strategy is to go short whenever a new local high is made within the 2050 - 2070 range. There is a possibility of a new ATH, but even there I would recommend to sell. I will publish another analysis with my long term idea of gold soon, but for the moment it should be enough to say, that the time to go long in these highs is over.

RSI on a daily basis is also above the important level of 80, maybe Gold can manage to hold strong another week or two, but the short move should begin soon.

Сделка активна:

Entered at 2048 with the first position. SL 2052, TP 2044, 2040.

This strategy is not recommended for everyone, as it's aggressive trading against a strong trend.

Сделка закрыта: достигнута тейк-профит цена:

Targets reached.

Full profit: 80 Pips

Сделка активна:

Scalp buy 2038 - 2040
SL 2035
TP 2045-2050

Комментарий:

2040 is the key area for today. I expect a pullback to that level at some point.

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Strong US GDP expected today. Be careful here, could push gold down the same way it exploded yesterday.

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Next strong support 2027 - 2030

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If gold closes lower than 2040 today, most likely this will be seen as a change in trend and a correction could follow to 2030, 2020 and even 2010. Also the GDP data could push gold down to one of the levels today. If you see the data coming out as expected or even higher, you could try to jump in. Only worse GDP data can push gold up, I don't recommend to go long today, except from scalping.

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Observe that 2038 level carefully. A 4H close should push gold to 2030.

Сделка закрыта вручную:

Closed at 2042 before the news.

Full profit: 40 Pips

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2044 is a significant short term resistance zone. A short move could start from here.

Сделка активна:

Numbers better than expected. Starting to short again, but be careful, as we are trading against the trend.

Sell 2042-2044
SL 2050
TO 2030 area

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2040 reached again, as I explained it is the key level for today. So observe closely how the price reacts here again. You can put SL on BE if you want.

Сделка активна:

Hopefully you managed to close BE or in profit from the last trade. I'm speculating on a new range from 2040 - 2050 now, so I try so sell the upper border of the possible range. There is of course a chance, that gold will break into the next level, but the risk is only 40 Pips, so I give it a try.

Sell 2048
SL 2052
TP 2040

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If Gold breaks 2052, 2060 - 2067 will be the next target and another possibility for shorting. I'll set limits there.

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20 Pips profit so far. Secured it.

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40 Pips profit. This could be a double top formation at the 4H timeframe. If 2035 breaks, the 2020 area becomes a realistic target.

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2037 reached again. Closing half of the position. SL to BE.

Full profit: 110 Pips

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We have news later today that could push gold out the range finally. Observe the level of 2036. A strong close below could initiate the short move down to 2020.

Сделка активна:

Good that we didn't enter at the bottom of the range. I'm in sells now from 2060 and have a limit at 2067 and 2076. I think I will do a new analysis this weekend. So follow me if you would like to be updated.

SELL 2060
SL 2070
TP 2050, 2020, 2000

Комментарий:

Just one think I want to mention now. There were huge volume candle closes today around 2050 today, which means that there is a high interest in buying gold. So the trend will not change so easily. BUT if you analyse markets in general you'll see that the volume is likely to increase a lot if it comes to ATHs. So still, a correction will happen at some point and the risk to go long at this point increases with every day. Also the RSI is over 80 for the third day now.

Сделка активна:

2067 reached. Todays move should be limited to 2070-2076, but we have to be really careful, because there could be a gap up with the market opening / closing. If you want to be safe, enter on Monday or set the SL far away if you can afford to (Low lot size, big account).

As I'm trading with a 6K challenge account I decided to set the SL to 2100 over the weekend. If there will be a squeeze I only lose the challenge fee, so really not recommended for normal trading.

Сделка закрыта: достигнута стоп-лосс цена:

I have to be honest. This one crashed my challenge account. I have to reset it. These kind of things happen sometimes. I've seen it coming, but it would have been better to just not trade.

Комментарий:

Unlucky to see my strategy worked out nicely and the targets 2050 and 2020 reached. As I explained on friday there was a high risk, the market will open with a GAP. But I never thought it would be a 75 Points move to create a new ATH without volume.

Сделка закрыта: достигнута тейк-профит цена:

2000 reached as well. Closing this idea, moving on to the next one.