Gold: Bullish Signal or Time to Short?

18 мар.

At first glance, this correction looks like a Triangle but I believe that's a deceiving look.

I'm leaning more to the bearish side on this one and think we should see an acceleration to the downside if 2153 is breached.

I'm positioning my self towards that at least but since I don't really know where my stop will be (probably around 2157), I won't activate any order just yet, it's merely a mental order for now.
Remember, when you don't know your risk (stop), you can't position size correctly!

Although I'm mentally leaning towards a quick sell off, I'm still trading what I see and for now that is a potential finished Triangle pattern so I'm trying a Long position here seen that risk is quite limited and potential reward makes it worth despite the small probability of success.

If we are indeed in this bullish Triangle, we could see price go for a new high above 2195.24
Invalidation level (and worst case stop) is of course at 2150.66 but I'm going for 2153.2 as my stop, giving a Reward/Risk of 7/1 if using the Invalidation level and up to 14/1 for my stop.