1. The first cycle of Bitcoin peaked at around USD20,000 in year 2017 which was coincided with Trump's 1st presidential term (20 Jan 2017). The second cycle of Bitcoin highly likely has already peaked at USD40,000 and also mystically coincided with Biden's 1st presidential term (20 Jan 2021). Why is that so? This is my lousy hypothesis.
2. Still remember when was the last major global cyber attack? It was called WannaCry Virus and the cyber attack was launched in 12 May 2017. It was without any sign of warning started in one isolated UK's NOH hospital and the computer virus was spreading like wild fire, the global network system within split second was infected and paralyzed. Interestingly the bad guy behind this WannaCry virus demanded that the ransom payment must be paid in Bitcoin. On 12 May 2017 Bitcoin (WannaCry Virus attack day zero) was trading at around USD2,000 and then skyrocket to around USD20,000 by Dec 2017. 150 countries around the world were attacked by this WannaCry Virus and that instantly created an artificial demand for Bitcoin in order to pay for this ransom money. One 22 year-old UK boy named Marcus Hutchins accidentally found out the hidden kill switch coded inside the virus and that finding helped to slowdown the virus's infection rate and that subsequently lead to the diminishing demand for Bitcoin and the price crashed. It was clear to me that WannaCry virus was skillfully designed by the attacker (US said the ransomware has the digital identify of North Korea) to manipulate the price of Bitcoin.
3. Fast forward to 2019, a virus coded name Covid19 was suddenly surfaced without early sign of warning and out of nowhere and some military experts suggested that its behavior closely resemble a biological weapon. Same as WannaCry Virus, the coronavirus (Taiwanese calls it Wuhan Virus) also spreading like wild fire. The whole world was badly affected and US was hardest hit. Just like WannaCry Virus paralyzed the global digital network system, this coronavirus also paralyzed the whole world's interlinked economies. Investors started to lost confident in US currency and move their bank saving into Bitcoin as worry that US currency maybe collapsing and that also skyrocket Bitcoin's price. If we use the analytical model of WannaCry's Bitcoin Cycle to predict Convid19's Bitcoin Cycle most likely Jan 2021 USD40,000 is the peak of the second cycle.
4. So the next big question. How secure is this blockchain technology which is the backbone of Bitcoin? The methodology of blockchain designed by Satoshi Nakamoto is almost technically foolproof and no way North Korea can cyber attack it. But the interlinked network system that used to keeping the blockchain records may not be securely designed to prevent any future synchronized global cyber attacks as hackers can easily used a brutal attack technique called Denial-of-Service (DoS) to paralyze the blockchain system and effectively interrupt all Bitcoin transactions. They can create ten of thousand of small digital wallets and start to heavily trade with each others to cause a network data overflow and compromise the global blockchain system. I am not telling a science fiction story so please don't bet all your lifetime saving into this blockchain technology as we never know when North Korea will launch its next cyber attack.
5. Back to our topic of why Bitcoin Peak Cycle can be coincided with the presidential cycle. The logic is simple. It is related to North Korea's activity. Back in 2017, the WannaCry cyber attack was launched not only with the intention to manipulate Bitcoin price but also to show the new incoming US President their capability to hold the whole world hostage.
6. "On 13 February 2017, Kim Jong-nam died after being exposed to VX nerve agent at Kuala Lumpur International Airport in Malaysia. It was widely believed that he was killed on the orders of his half-brother Kim Jong-un..." (src : Wikepedia) and this news proved that North Korea is not a low tech country as outside world like to label them. Their capability in biotechnology development may go beyond our imagination.
2. Still remember when was the last major global cyber attack? It was called WannaCry Virus and the cyber attack was launched in 12 May 2017. It was without any sign of warning started in one isolated UK's NOH hospital and the computer virus was spreading like wild fire, the global network system within split second was infected and paralyzed. Interestingly the bad guy behind this WannaCry virus demanded that the ransom payment must be paid in Bitcoin. On 12 May 2017 Bitcoin (WannaCry Virus attack day zero) was trading at around USD2,000 and then skyrocket to around USD20,000 by Dec 2017. 150 countries around the world were attacked by this WannaCry Virus and that instantly created an artificial demand for Bitcoin in order to pay for this ransom money. One 22 year-old UK boy named Marcus Hutchins accidentally found out the hidden kill switch coded inside the virus and that finding helped to slowdown the virus's infection rate and that subsequently lead to the diminishing demand for Bitcoin and the price crashed. It was clear to me that WannaCry virus was skillfully designed by the attacker (US said the ransomware has the digital identify of North Korea) to manipulate the price of Bitcoin.
3. Fast forward to 2019, a virus coded name Covid19 was suddenly surfaced without early sign of warning and out of nowhere and some military experts suggested that its behavior closely resemble a biological weapon. Same as WannaCry Virus, the coronavirus (Taiwanese calls it Wuhan Virus) also spreading like wild fire. The whole world was badly affected and US was hardest hit. Just like WannaCry Virus paralyzed the global digital network system, this coronavirus also paralyzed the whole world's interlinked economies. Investors started to lost confident in US currency and move their bank saving into Bitcoin as worry that US currency maybe collapsing and that also skyrocket Bitcoin's price. If we use the analytical model of WannaCry's Bitcoin Cycle to predict Convid19's Bitcoin Cycle most likely Jan 2021 USD40,000 is the peak of the second cycle.
4. So the next big question. How secure is this blockchain technology which is the backbone of Bitcoin? The methodology of blockchain designed by Satoshi Nakamoto is almost technically foolproof and no way North Korea can cyber attack it. But the interlinked network system that used to keeping the blockchain records may not be securely designed to prevent any future synchronized global cyber attacks as hackers can easily used a brutal attack technique called Denial-of-Service (DoS) to paralyze the blockchain system and effectively interrupt all Bitcoin transactions. They can create ten of thousand of small digital wallets and start to heavily trade with each others to cause a network data overflow and compromise the global blockchain system. I am not telling a science fiction story so please don't bet all your lifetime saving into this blockchain technology as we never know when North Korea will launch its next cyber attack.
5. Back to our topic of why Bitcoin Peak Cycle can be coincided with the presidential cycle. The logic is simple. It is related to North Korea's activity. Back in 2017, the WannaCry cyber attack was launched not only with the intention to manipulate Bitcoin price but also to show the new incoming US President their capability to hold the whole world hostage.
6. "On 13 February 2017, Kim Jong-nam died after being exposed to VX nerve agent at Kuala Lumpur International Airport in Malaysia. It was widely believed that he was killed on the orders of his half-brother Kim Jong-un..." (src : Wikepedia) and this news proved that North Korea is not a low tech country as outside world like to label them. Their capability in biotechnology development may go beyond our imagination.
Комментарий:
7. "Bitcoin is a digital currency created in January 2009 following the housing market crash. It follows the ideas set out in a whitepaper by the mysterious and pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto..." (src : investopedia) and this statement to me actually is only half of the full picture and not a good description to the true picture of Bitcoin. I personally think that most people bought Bitcoin for wrong reason. Bitcoin was giving birth in the dream to help ordinary people to escape banking crisis or in simple word it is acted more like a highly secretive private bank likes Swiss Bank. So the value of Bitcoin is more correlated to banking confidence rather than geopolitical risk or Fed's monetary policy. When the risk of banking crisis increased, the value of Bitcoin will move up dramatically and collapse when the banking risk subsided as it is so inconvenience to use Bitcoin to meet daily needs due to its volatility. My own view the Covid19 Bitcoin Peak Cycle (2nd Peak Cycle) not only has peaked at USD40,000 but it will also be the historical all time high as no way we will ever see any global economic crisis as bad as this coronavirus attack. My own prediction, the 3rd Bitcoin Peak Cycle not only will be lower than Covid19 Bitcoin Peak Cycle (USD40,000) but also much lower than the WannaCry Bitcoin Peak Cycle (1st Peak Cycle USD20,000). Some of my followers maybe asking the question what about the risk of nuclear war with North Korea? Will the price of Bitcoin skyrocket to USD80,000? My answer is NO as under this WW3 scenario, the first thing you must do is running out to supermarket to buy up as much foods and water as possible and no one will ever have the leisure time to play Bitcoin anymore :)
