I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis: We failed to confirm the bear pennant with a close below (4h chart) and now we are attempting to break out of the top. If that happens then I expect it to be nothing more than a trap / shakeout before the breakdown.
Position: Short BTC:USD from $6,353 | Short ETH:USD from $205.20 & $196.32 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.000808 | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00758
Patterns: Bear pennant (with fake breakout?)
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $5,452 | R: $5,555
BTCUSDSHORTS: Seeing a higher low makes me feel much better, watching for higher high
Funding Rates: Longs pay 0.01%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Today closed above but quickly came back below
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Surprised that the lil’ pump from today didn’t test the 9 MA. Potentially a very bearish sign and makes me think about adjusting this accordingly.
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Starting to turn down hard
Overall trend: Bear
Volume: Little green volume from today was no match for the large volume we saw on the selloff
FIB’s: (High of Feb 20th and low of Feb 6th’) 1 = $5,863 | 1.272 = $4,262 | 1.4140 = $3,426 | 1.618 = $2,224
Candlestick analysis: That bearish wick might be considered an inverted hammer, I see it just the opposite. I view that as a textbook fake breakout from the symmetrical triangle (bear pennant)
Ichimoku Cloud: The 1h cloud held up nicely as resistance. Now the last candle wicked off the bottom of it. Watch for a close below.
TD’ Sequential: 1h r2 below a r1 would also be a breakdown of the cloud. Daily is on a r3 that briefly fell below the r2 (I think it will close below as well)
Visible Range: If price can’t support $5,200 then I expect us to fall right through $4,900 - $5,000 due to the gap in volume
Price action: 24h: -0.52% | 2w: -14.06% | 1m: -13.72%
Bollinger Bands: Would like to see close on the bottom band
Trendline: Connect top of May 5th to top of July 24th. Connect close on Sept 8th to the wicks on 11/14 and 11/5. I expect this to be the new bear channel that takes us to $3,000.
Daily Trend: Close is bullish but I would consider it neutral with the quick pullback.
Fractals: The next daily fractal that I am seeing is at $4,265 and that is exactly where I am expecting the next selloff to find support.
RSI: Now we are seeing the RSI pull up. Still watching for a div’. If we make a lower low (would be needed for a div) then I would use that to draw new trendlines.
Stochastic: Tried to make a bullish recross but looks like it is getting rejected
Summary: The daily candle could be viewed as bullish (inverted hammer) but I think it is a bearish wick and the following candle finding resistance at the top of the body and quickly violating the low is confirmation. I will be watching for the top of the current daily candle to hold for resistance and then a close below the 4 MA.
If you are looking for an entry the 1h Ichimoku Cloud and the TD’ Sequential are lining up nicely. More importantly the higher time frames confirm. A close below the 1h cloud would also be a red 2 below a red 1.
However be careful about entering a short while the RSI this oversold. You are essentially betting that there will be a divergence because the RSI is at all time lows. We are also near support and I would at least expect a correction to the 8-9 MA before continuing the trend. If it were me I would either stay away or bet roughly one third my normal position size.
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis: We failed to confirm the bear pennant with a close below (4h chart) and now we are attempting to break out of the top. If that happens then I expect it to be nothing more than a trap / shakeout before the breakdown.
Position: Short BTC:USD from $6,353 | Short ETH:USD from $205.20 & $196.32 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.000808 | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00758
Patterns: Bear pennant (with fake breakout?)
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $5,452 | R: $5,555
BTCUSDSHORTS: Seeing a higher low makes me feel much better, watching for higher high
Funding Rates: Longs pay 0.01%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Today closed above but quickly came back below
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Surprised that the lil’ pump from today didn’t test the 9 MA. Potentially a very bearish sign and makes me think about adjusting this accordingly.
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Starting to turn down hard
Overall trend: Bear
Volume: Little green volume from today was no match for the large volume we saw on the selloff
FIB’s: (High of Feb 20th and low of Feb 6th’) 1 = $5,863 | 1.272 = $4,262 | 1.4140 = $3,426 | 1.618 = $2,224
Candlestick analysis: That bearish wick might be considered an inverted hammer, I see it just the opposite. I view that as a textbook fake breakout from the symmetrical triangle (bear pennant)
Ichimoku Cloud: The 1h cloud held up nicely as resistance. Now the last candle wicked off the bottom of it. Watch for a close below.
TD’ Sequential: 1h r2 below a r1 would also be a breakdown of the cloud. Daily is on a r3 that briefly fell below the r2 (I think it will close below as well)
Visible Range: If price can’t support $5,200 then I expect us to fall right through $4,900 - $5,000 due to the gap in volume
Price action: 24h: -0.52% | 2w: -14.06% | 1m: -13.72%
Bollinger Bands: Would like to see close on the bottom band
Trendline: Connect top of May 5th to top of July 24th. Connect close on Sept 8th to the wicks on 11/14 and 11/5. I expect this to be the new bear channel that takes us to $3,000.
Daily Trend: Close is bullish but I would consider it neutral with the quick pullback.
Fractals: The next daily fractal that I am seeing is at $4,265 and that is exactly where I am expecting the next selloff to find support.
RSI: Now we are seeing the RSI pull up. Still watching for a div’. If we make a lower low (would be needed for a div) then I would use that to draw new trendlines.
Stochastic: Tried to make a bullish recross but looks like it is getting rejected
Summary: The daily candle could be viewed as bullish (inverted hammer) but I think it is a bearish wick and the following candle finding resistance at the top of the body and quickly violating the low is confirmation. I will be watching for the top of the current daily candle to hold for resistance and then a close below the 4 MA.
If you are looking for an entry the 1h Ichimoku Cloud and the TD’ Sequential are lining up nicely. More importantly the higher time frames confirm. A close below the 1h cloud would also be a red 2 below a red 1.
However be careful about entering a short while the RSI this oversold. You are essentially betting that there will be a divergence because the RSI is at all time lows. We are also near support and I would at least expect a correction to the 8-9 MA before continuing the trend. If it were me I would either stay away or bet roughly one third my normal position size.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/