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XMR cup handle after declining channels or BTC decline?

POLONIEX:XMRBTC   Monero / Bitcoin
4
looks like a cup and handle, and you can see the elliot wave forming
dip to 18 makes me think this might be an uptrend

but it also feels like it could just be a free fall to my previous estimate of 15-17
and BTC is supposed to be bullish

so I'll decide after looking at BTC activity and if this trend bounces back like a handle
probably safer to wait to see if it breaks the sideways channel in accordance to BTC direction

depends on BTC and channel break
look for either a spring bounce with BTC drop or downward break and BTC climb
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