TheLazyBrother

ZB - end of bear market?

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CBOT:ZBM2022   U.S. Treasury Bond Futures (Jun 2022)
Stocks are selling off, and it looks like there's more to come. Interestingly, "flight to safety" was non-existant so far.

Market crash, and a recession that follows are profoundly deflationary events. Consequently, bonds should rally. And with agood reason: 3% guaranteed for 20+ years more and more looks like not such a bad proposition.

Moreover, it seems that market is crashing trying to find the point where interest rates would start coming down. And they will when FEAR, real FEAR emerges.

Trendline is broken, and ZB is coiling under the purple SMA with momentum divergence in place, picking up a nice bid in yesterday's sell off. If stocks really tank, and why wouldn't they after reaching historic valuations, and deflation returns.... interest rates at ZERO again?

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