SPX Implied Probability of closing above/below
This is a recreation of the work done by Michael Rechenthin aka "Dr.Data" from Tastytrade back in 2016 (this indicator is for
SPX
only)
You can watch the episode where "Dr.Data", Tom and Tony go over this concept on the following link:
https://www.tastytrade.com/shows/the-skinny-on-options-data-science/episodes/spreadsheet-for-calculating-expected-moves-05-05-2016
The following are my personal additions:
- ability to choose between
VIX
and
VOLI
as the IV input
- ability to choose between 252 and 365 for the number of days
Note that I’m displaying 4 decimal places (#.####) to be as accurate as possible but sometimes you will see 0% or 100% displayed which means that more decimal places are needed (0% could be 0.00005% or 100% could be 99.99995%).
SPX
only) You can watch the episode where "Dr.Data", Tom and Tony go over this concept on the following link:
https://www.tastytrade.com/shows/the-skinny-on-options-data-science/episodes/spreadsheet-for-calculating-expected-moves-05-05-2016
The following are my personal additions:
- ability to choose between
VIX
and
VOLI
as the IV input - ability to choose between 252 and 365 for the number of days
Note that I’m displaying 4 decimal places (#.####) to be as accurate as possible but sometimes you will see 0% or 100% displayed which means that more decimal places are needed (0% could be 0.00005% or 100% could be 99.99995%).