Tactical Holding [SwissAlgo]Tactical Holding
A visual framework for managing long-term positions across market cycles
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Purpose
Instead of holding a fixed position through all market conditions , you can use this framework to adjust your exposure tactically . By reducing positions during distribution phases and accumulating during favorable accumulation zones, you may end up holding more units of the asset over complete market cycles - even if you temporarily exit or reduce exposure during unfavorable periods. This approach aims to help you compound your holdings by taking advantage of market volatility rather than simply enduring it.
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Recommended Settings
Timeframe : Weekly (1W) chart
Chart Type : Standard candlesticks (select 'Bar' type Candles)
This indicator is designed for higher timeframe analysis. While it can be applied to other timeframes, the logic and signal generation are optimized for weekly charts to filter out short-term noise and focus on major market cycles.
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Key Features
♦ Market State Classification
The indicator aims to categorize potential market conditions into five color-coded states based on technical confluences:
* Bull (bright green): Multiple bullish indicators align
* Bull Retrace (teal): Bullish structure with temporary weakness
* Bull ⇆ Bear Reversal (yellow): Transitional phase between trends
* Bear (bright red): Multiple bearish indicators align
* Bear Retrace (Pale Red/Maroon): Bearish structure with temporary strength
♦ Visual Elements
* Candles change color based on the current market state
* A 50-period EMA tracks with the same color coding, providing visual trend context
* Small arrow markers appear when specific pattern conditions are met (zones for potential distribution or accumulation)
* A legend table (toggle on/off) explains the color system
* A label shows the current state name on the chart
♦ Pattern Recognition
The system monitors for two types of potential entry/exit zones:
1. State transition patterns after periods of market regime consistency
2. RSI divergence patterns (when price and momentum move in opposite directions)
♦ Customization
* Toggle the legend table visibility through settings
* All calculations are transparent and use standard technical analysis methods
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How It Works
Think of this indicator as a traffic light system for your portfolio:
♦ Green zones suggest the asset might be in an environment where long-term holders historically have remained invested
Bright green (Bull) : Multiple technical indicators align in a potentially strong bullish phase
Pale green (Bull Retrace) : Bullish structure remains intact, but momentum shows temporary weakness - often a pullback within an uptrend
♦ Red zones suggest conditions where long-term holders might consider reducing exposure or waiting for better entry points
Dark red (Bear) : Multiple technical indicators align in a potentially strong bearish phase
Pale red (Bear Retrace) : Bearish structure remains intact but shows temporary strength - often a bounce within a downtrend
♦ Yellow zones indicate the market is in transition between bull and bear regimes - a time for increased attention as the trend direction becomes uncertain
The system doesn't predict future prices. Instead, it helps you understand the current technical environment by doing the heavy lifting of analyzing multiple indicators at once and presenting them in a simple visual format.
Example: During the 2022 crypto bear market, the indicator would have displayed extended red periods, signaling defensive conditions for holders. When accumulation arrows appeared in late 2022-early 2023, it highlighted potential re-entry zones as the technical regime transitioned back toward green, before the 2024 recovery.
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Who This Is For
♦ Long-term investors who want to hold assets through cycles but prefer a systematic approach to position sizing and timing rather than buying and never selling .
♦ Portfolio managers looking for a visual tool to help determine when to increase or decrease exposure to specific assets based on technical regime changes.
♦ Swing traders on higher timeframes who want to align their positions with the broader market structure rather than fighting the trend.
This is not designed for:
* Day traders or scalpers
* Those seeking exact entry/exit prices
* Automated trading systems (this is a visual decision-support tool)
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Understanding the Visuals
When you apply Tactical Holding to a chart, you'll see:
1. Colored candles - Instantly see what market regime the asset is in
2. Colored EMA line (thick line) - Provides a dynamic support/resistance reference that changes color with market conditions
3. Small arrows (↑ ↓) - Mark bars where specific technical patterns complete
4. State label - Shows current market classification
5. Legend table (top right) - Quick reference guide for the color system
6. Warning banner (top center) - Reminds you to use weekly charts
The visual design prioritizes clarity over complexity. You should be able to glance at a chart and immediately understand the current technical environment.
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Important Limitations
This indicator cannot:
* Predict future price movements
* Guarantee profitable trades
* Work equally well on all assets or timeframes
* Replace your own research and risk management
Technical considerations:
* Divergence detection has a 3-bar confirmation lag (by design, to avoid false signals)
* State transitions require multiple technical confirmations, which may cause delayed reactions to rapid market changes
* The system is reactive, not predictive - it responds to price action after it occurs
* Performance varies significantly between trending assets (like Solana) and stable assets (like Apple)
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Practical Application
Consider using this indicator as one component of a broader investment framework:
♦ Understanding Position Context:
The color-coded states can help frame your thinking about current holdings:
Bull: Technical conditions that have historically been associated with sustained uptrends
Bull Retrace: Pullbacks within an overall bullish structure- these periods may offer opportunities to evaluate entry points or reassess existing positions
Reversal (Yellow): Transitional phases where the trend direction is unclear - periods that may warrant closer monitoring
Bear Retrace: Temporary strength within an overall bearish structure - rallies that historically have often faded
Bear: Technical conditions that have historically been associated with sustained downtrends
♦ Interpreting Signal Arrows:
Arrow markers indicate when specific technical pattern conditions have been met. These are observation points, not instructions:
A signal appearing doesn't mean immediate action is required
Treat arrows as prompts for further analysis rather than automatic triggers
Consider the broader context: fundamentals, your investment timeline, risk tolerance, and overall market conditions
Signals show when historical technical patterns have formed - not whether those patterns will lead to the same outcomes as in the past
The framework is designed to organize information visually, not to tell you what to do. Your investment decisions should incorporate this technical perspective alongside other factors relevant to your situation.
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Technical Methodology
For transparency, the indicator uses:
* RSI (14) with a 14-period SMA to assess momentum direction
* MACD (12,26,9) to confirm trend strength and histogram momentum
* Stochastic RSI with K and D line crossovers for additional confirmation
* 50-period EMA as the primary trend filter
* Linear regression-based slope analysis to detect flat/transitional periods
* Pivot-based divergence detection following standard technical analysis principles
All calculations use publicly available technical analysis formulas. Nothing is hidden or proprietary beyond the specific combination and weighting of these standard tools.
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Disclaimer
This indicator is an educational and analytical tool only. It is not financial advice.
* Trading and investing involve substantial risk of loss
* Past performance of any technical system does not indicate future results
* No indicator can predict market movements with certainty
* Always conduct your own research and consult with qualified financial professionals
* Never invest more than you can afford to lose
* The creators of this indicator are not responsible for any trading losses
* This tool is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to TradingView, 3Commas, or any other trading platform
* Use of this indicator is at your own risk
Risk Management: Regardless of what any indicator shows, always use proper position sizing, stop losses, and risk management appropriate to your personal financial situation.
This indicator provides a framework for analysis. Your decisions, research, and risk management determine your results.
Distribution
Central Limit Theorem Reversion IndicatorDear TV community, let me introduce you to the first-ever Central Limit Theorem indicator on TradingView.
The Central Limit Theorem is used in statistics and it can be quite useful in quant trading and understanding market behaviors.
In short, the CLT states: "When you take repeated samples from any population and calculate their averages, those averages will form a normal (bell curve) distribution—no matter what the original data looks like."
In this CLT indicator, I use statistical theory to identify high-probability mean reversion opportunities in the markets. It calculates statistical confidence bands and z-scores to identify when price movements deviate significantly from their expected distribution, signaling potential reversion opportunities with quantifiable probability levels.
Mathematical Foundation
The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) says that when you average many data points together, those averages will form a predictable bell-curve pattern, even if the original data is completely random and unpredictable (which often is in the markets). This works no matter what you're measuring, and it gets more reliable as you use more data points.
Why using it for trading?
Individual price movements seem random and chaotic, but when we look at the average of many price movements, we can actually predict how they should behave statistically. This lets us spot when prices have moved "too far" from what's normal—and those extreme moves tend to snap back (mean reversion).
Key Formula:
Z = (X̄ - μ) / (σ / √n)
Where:
- X̄ = Sample mean (average return over n periods)
- μ = Population mean (long-term expected return)
- σ = Population standard deviation (volatility)
- n = Sample size
- σ/√n = Standard error of the mean
How I Apply CLT
Step 1: Calculate Returns
Measures how much price changed from one bar to the next (using logarithms for better statistical properties)
Step 2: Average Recent Returns
Takes the average of the last n returns (e.g., last 100 bars). This is your "sample mean."
Step 3: Find What's "Normal"
Looks at historical data to determine: a) What the typical average return should be (the long-term mean) and b) How volatile the market usually is (standard deviation)
Step 4: Calculate Standard Error
Determines how much sample averages naturally vary. Larger samples = smaller expected variation.
Step 5: Calculate Z-Score
Measures how unusual the current situation is.
Step 6: Draw Confidence Bands
Converts these statistical boundaries into actual price levels on your chart, showing where price is statistically expected to stay 95% and 99% of the time.
Interpretation & Usage
The Z-Score:
The z-score tells you how statistically unusual the current price deviation is:
|Z| < 1.0 → Normal behavior, no action
|Z| = 1.0 to 1.96 → Moderate deviation, watch closely
|Z| = 1.96 to 2.58 → Significant deviation (95%+), consider entry
|Z| > 2.58 → Extreme deviation (99%+), high probability setup
The Confidence Bands
- Upper Red Bands: 95% and 99% overbought zones → Expect mean reversion downward as the price is not likely to cross these lines.
- Center Gray Line: Statistical expectation (fair value)
- Lower Blue Bands: 95% and 99% oversold zones → Expect mean reversion upward
Trading Logic:
- When price exceeds the upper 95% band (z-score > +1.96), there's only a 5% probability this is random noise → Strong sell/short signal
- When price falls below the lower 95% band (z-score < -1.96), there's a 95% statistical expectation of upward reversion → Strong buy/long signal
Background Gradient
The background color provides real-time visual feedback:
- Blue shades: Oversold conditions, expect upward reversion
- Red shades: Overbought conditions, expect downward reversion
- Intensity: Darker colors indicate stronger statistical significance
Trading Strategy Examples
Hypothetically, this is how the indicator could be used:
- Long: Z-score < -1.96 (below 95% confidence band)
- Short: Z-score > +1.96 (above 95% confidence band)
- Take profit when price returns to center line (Z ≈ 0)
Input Parameters
Sample Size (n) - Default: 100
Lookback Period (m) - Default: 100
You can also create alerts based on the indicator.
Final notes:
- The indicator uses logarithmic returns for better statistical properties
- Converts statistical bands back to price space for practical use
- Adaptive volatility: Bands automatically widen in high volatility, narrow in low volatility
- No repainting: yay! All calculations use historical data only
Feedback is more than welcome!
Henri
Smart Money Dynamics Blocks — Pearson MatrixSmart Money Dynamics Blocks — Pearson Matrix
A structural fusion of Prime Number Theory, Pearson Correlation, and Cumulative Delta Geometry.
1. Mathematical Foundation
This indicator is built on the intersection of Prime Number Theory and the Pearson correlation coefficient, creating a structural framework that quantifies how price and time evolve together.
Prime numbers — unique, indivisible, and irregular — are used here as nonlinear time intervals. Each prime length (2, 3, 5, 7, 11…97) represents a regression horizon where correlation is measured between price and time. The result is a multi-scale correlation lattice — a geometric matrix that captures hidden directional strength and temporal bias beyond traditional moving averages.
2. The Pearson Matrix Logic
For every prime interval p, the indicator calculates the linear correlation:
r_p = corr(price, bar_index, p)
Each r_p reflects how closely price and time move together across a prime-defined window. All r_p values are then averaged to create avgR, a single adaptive coefficient summarizing overall structural coherence.
- When avgR > 0.8 → strong positive correlation (labeled R+).
- When avgR < -0.8 → strong negative correlation (labeled R−).
This approach gives a mathematically grounded definition of trend — one that isn’t based on pattern recognition, but on measurable correlation strength.
3. Sequential Prime Slope and Median Pivot
Using the ordered sequence of 25 prime intervals, the model computes sequential slopes between adjacent primes. These slopes represent the rate of change of structure between two prime scales. A robust median aggregator smooths the slopes, producing a clean, stable directional vector.
The system anchors this slope to the 41-bar pivot — the median of the first 25 primes — serving as the geometric midpoint of the prime lattice. The resulting yellow line on the chart is not an ordinary regression line; it’s a dynamic prime-slope function, adapting continuously with correlation feedback.
4. Regression-Style Parallel Bands
Around this prime-slope line, the indicator constructs parallel bands using standard deviation envelopes — conceptually similar to a regression channel but recalculated through the prime–Pearson matrix.
These bands adjust dynamically to:
- Volatility, via standard deviation of residuals.
- Correlation strength, via avgR sign weighting.
Together, they visualize statistical deviation geometry, making it easier to observe symmetry, expansion, and contraction phases of price structure.
5. Volume and Cumulative Delta Peaks
Below the geometric layer, the indicator incorporates a custom lower-timeframe volume feed — by default using 15-second data (custom_tf_input_volume = “15S”). This allows precise delta computation between up-volume and down-volume even on higher timeframe charts.
From this feed, the indicator accumulates delta over a configurable period (default: 100 bars). When cumulative delta reaches a local maximum or minimum, peak and trough markers appear, showing the precise bar where buying or selling pressure statistically peaked.
This combination of geometry and order flow reveals the intersection of market structure and energy — where liquidity pressure expresses itself through mathematical form.
6. Chart Interpretation
The primary chart view represents the live execution of the indicator. It displays the relationship between structural correlation and volume behavior in real time.
Orange “R+” and blue “R−” labels indicate regions of strong positive or negative Pearson correlation across the prime matrix. The yellow median prime-slope line serves as the structural backbone of the indicator, while green and red parallel bands act as dynamic regression boundaries derived from the underlying correlation strength. Peaks and troughs in cumulative delta — displayed as numerical annotations — mark statistically significant shifts in buying and selling pressure.
The secondary visualization (Prime Regression Concept) expands on this by illustrating how regression behavior evolves across prime intervals. Each colored regression fan corresponds to a prime number window (2, 3, 5, 7, …, 97), demonstrating how multiple regression lines would appear if drawn independently. The indicator integrates these into one unified geometric model — eliminating the need to plot tens of regression lines manually. It’s a conceptual tool to help visualize the internal logic: the synthesis of many small-scale regressions into a single coherent structure.
7. Interpretive Insight
This model is not a prediction tool; it’s an instrument of mathematical observation. By translating price dynamics into a prime-structured correlation space, it reveals how coherence unfolds through time — not as a forecast, but as a measurable evolution of structure.
It unifies three analytical domains:
- Prime distribution — defines a nonlinear temporal architecture.
- Pearson correlation — quantifies statistical cohesion.
- Cumulative delta — expresses behavioral imbalance in order flow.
The synthesis creates a geometric analysis of liquidity and time — where structure meets energy, and where the invisible rhythm of market flow becomes measurable.
8. Contribution & Feedback
Share your observations in the comments:
- The time gap and alternation between R+ and R− clusters.
- How different timeframes change delta sensitivity or reveal compression/expansion.
- Prime intervals/clusters that tend to sit near turning points or liquidity shifts.
- How avgR behaves across assets or regimes (trending, ranging, high-vol).
- Notable interactions with the parallel bands (touches, breaks, mean-revert).
Your field notes help others read the model more effectively and compare contexts.
Summary
- Primes define the structure.
- Pearson quantifies coherence.
- Slope median stabilizes geometry.
- Regression bands visualize deviation.
- Cumulative delta locates imbalance.
Together, they construct a framework where mathematics meets market behavior.
AlphaFlow - Trend DetectorOVERVIEW
AlphaFlow identifies and tracks large volume moves by combining volume analysis, price impact measurement, and conviction scoring to separate significant institutional moves from normal trading activity. Rather than just flagging high volume, this indicator evaluates whether large trades actually moved the market and assigns conviction levels based on multiple confirmation factors.
WHAT MAKES THIS ORIGINAL
This is not simply a volume indicator or volume-weighted price tracker. The originality lies in the multi-factor conviction scoring system that evaluates whether large volume moves represent genuine institutional conviction or just noise.
Key Differentiators:
- Combines volume ratio AND price impact (volume alone doesn't mean conviction)
- Conviction scoring system that weighs trend alignment, follow-through, and volume persistence
- Cumulative flow tracking that shows persistent directional pressure over time
- Market regime detection (bullish/bearish/sideways) based on flow dynamics
- Tiered signal system (EXTREME/HIGH/MEDIUM conviction) rather than binary signals
This approach solves the problem of volume spikes that don't lead to meaningful price action, or price moves on low volume that don't persist.
HOW IT WORKS
1. Whale Detection Engine:
Volume Qualification: Compares current volume to a rolling average (default 50 bars). Whale activity requires volume to be at least 1.5x the average (adjustable).
Price Impact Requirement: Volume alone isn't enough. The bar must also show significant price movement (default 0.1% minimum). This filters out high-volume consolidation where no one is actually committed to direction.
Direction Identification: Bullish whale = close > open on high volume. Bearish whale = close < open on high volume.
2. Conviction Scoring System:
The indicator doesn't just flag whale activity - it evaluates conviction through multiple factors:
Base Conviction: Calculated from (volume_ratio × price_impact) / 10
This gives higher scores to moves with both exceptional volume AND large price swings.
Trend Alignment Bonus (1.5x multiplier): Whale moves aligned with the 20-period EMA trend receive higher conviction scores. Institutional money tends to accumulate with the trend, not against it.
Follow-Through Bonus (1.3x multiplier): After whale activity, does price continue in that direction over the next bars (default 3)? Genuine conviction shows persistence.
Volume Persistence (1.2x multiplier): Is elevated volume sustained over multiple bars, or is it a one-time spike? The 3-bar average volume ratio above 1.5x indicates sustained interest.
Conviction Levels:
- EXTREME: Score > 15 (large whale emoji labels, highest confidence)
- HIGH: Score > 8 (triangle signals, strong confidence)
- MEDIUM: Score > 3 (small triangles, moderate confidence)
- LOW: Score < 3 (not plotted to reduce noise)
3. Cumulative Flow Analysis:
Rather than treating each whale move in isolation, the indicator tracks cumulative flow using an EMA of whale activity. This reveals persistent directional pressure.
Flow Calculation: Each whale bar contributes (whale_strength × direction) to the flow. Strength is volume_ratio × price_impact_percent.
Flow Momentum: Rate of change in the cumulative flow (5-bar change)
Flow Acceleration: Second derivative (3-bar change of momentum)
These metrics reveal whether whale activity is accelerating, decelerating, or reversing.
4. Market Regime Detection:
Bullish Regime: Cumulative flow > 2 AND momentum positive
Bearish Regime: Cumulative flow < -2 AND momentum negative
Sideways Regime: Neither condition met
The background color reflects the current regime, helping traders understand the broader context.
5. Flow Strength Meter:
The main plot normalizes cumulative flow to a -100 to +100 scale based on the 100-bar range. This provides a consistent visual reference regardless of the asset or timeframe.
Extreme levels at ±50 indicate particularly strong directional flow where reversals or consolidation become more likely.
HOW TO USE IT
Settings Configuration:
Whale Detection Section:
- Volume Average Period (default 50): Shorter periods make detection more sensitive to recent volume changes. Longer periods require more exceptional volume to trigger.
- Whale Volume Multiplier (default 1.5): How much above average volume must be to qualify. Lower = more signals. Higher = only extreme moves.
- Minimum Price Impact (default 0.1%): Filters out high-volume bars that didn't actually move price. Adjust based on asset volatility.
Trend Analysis:
- Trend Strength Period (default 20): EMA period for trend alignment bonus
- Confirmation Bars (default 3): How many bars to check for follow-through
Visual Settings:
- Flow Strength Meter: Main plot showing normalized cumulative flow
- Conviction Labels: Detailed labels showing volume ratio and price impact on extreme/high conviction whales
- Trend Background: Color-coded regime indication
Signal Interpretation:
EXTREME Conviction (Whale Emoji Labels):
These are the highest confidence signals. Large volume with significant price impact, aligned with trend, showing follow-through. These often mark the beginning or continuation of strong moves.
HIGH Conviction (Large Triangles):
Strong signals meeting most criteria. Good for main entries or adding to positions.
MEDIUM Conviction (Small Triangles):
Whale activity present but with fewer confirmation factors. Use for partial positions or require additional confirmation.
Flow Strength Meter:
- Above zero and rising: Bullish flow building
- Below zero and falling: Bearish flow building
- Approaching ±50: Extreme readings, watch for exhaustion
- Crossing zero: Flow regime change
Dashboard Information:
The top-right table shows:
- Current regime (bullish/bearish/sideways)
- Flow strength value
- Last whale direction
- Conviction level of last whale
- Current volume ratio
- Flow momentum direction
- Indicator status
Trading Strategies:
Trend Following: Take EXTREME and HIGH conviction signals aligned with the flow meter direction. Enter when flow is positive and rising for bullish whales, negative and falling for bearish whales.
Regime-Based: Only trade in bullish/bearish regimes (colored backgrounds). Avoid trading in sideways regimes where whale moves tend to reverse quickly.
Flow Reversals: When flow meter crosses zero with EXTREME conviction whale in the new direction, this often marks regime changes.
Exhaustion Plays: When flow reaches ±50 extreme levels, watch for EXTREME conviction whales in the opposite direction as potential reversal signals.
TECHNICAL DETAILS
Volume Ratio = Current Volume / SMA(Volume, Period)
Price Impact % = ABS(Close - Open) / Open × 100
Whale Detected = (Volume Ratio >= Multiplier) AND (Price Impact >= Minimum)
Whale Direction = Close > Open ? 1 : -1
Base Conviction = (Volume Ratio × Price Impact %) / 10
Trend Alignment = Whale Direction == Trend Direction ? 1.5 : 1.0
Follow-Through = Price continues whale direction over N bars ? 1.3 : 1.0
Volume Persistence = SMA(Volume Ratio, 3) > 1.5 ? 1.2 : 1.0
Final Conviction = Base × Trend Alignment × Follow-Through × Volume Persistence
Whale Flow = Whale Detected ? (Volume Ratio × Price Impact × Direction) : 0
Cumulative Flow = EMA(Whale Flow, 20)
Flow Momentum = Change(Cumulative Flow, 5)
Flow Acceleration = Change(Momentum, 3)
Normalized Flow Strength = (Cumulative Flow / Highest(ABS(Cumulative Flow), 100)) × 100
WHAT THIS SOLVES
Common Volume Indicator Problems:
- Volume spikes that don't move price (consolidation noise)
- Price moves on low volume that quickly reverse
- No differentiation between strong and weak volume signals
- Treating all high-volume bars equally regardless of context
- No measure of whether volume represents conviction or panic
Whale Flow Solutions:
- Requires both volume AND price impact for signals
- Conviction scoring separates strong moves from weak ones
- Cumulative flow shows persistent pressure vs isolated spikes
- Trend alignment and follow-through filter low-quality signals
- Tiered system lets traders choose their confidence threshold
LIMITATIONS
- Cannot identify individual whales or attribute volume to specific entities
- High volume can come from many sources (whales, retail panic, algo activity)
- Works best on liquid assets with consistent volume patterns
- Less reliable on low-volume assets or during market closures
- Conviction scoring thresholds may need adjustment per asset/timeframe
- Does not predict future whale activity, only identifies it after bars close
- Flow can remain at extremes longer than expected during strong trends
- False signals can occur during news events or earnings
- Not a standalone trading system - requires risk management and other analysis
Best used in combination with price action, support/resistance, and broader market context.
EDUCATIONAL VALUE
For traders learning about:
- Volume analysis beyond simple volume indicators
- Multi-factor signal confirmation systems
- Market regime and flow concepts
- Conviction-based scoring methodologies
- Cumulative indicator design
- Normalized plotting for cross-asset comparison
- Pine Script table and dashboard creation
Not financial advice.
First Passage Time - Distribution AnalysisThe First Passage Time (FPT) Distribution Analysis indicator is a sophisticated probabilistic tool that answers one of the most critical questions in trading: "How long will it take for price to reach my target, and what are the odds of getting there first?"
Unlike traditional technical indicators that focus on what might happen, this indicator tells you when it's likely to happen.
Mathematical Foundation: First Passage Time Theory
What is First Passage Time?
First Passage Time (FPT) is a concept in stochastic processes that measures the time it takes for a random process to reach a specific threshold for the first time. Originally developed in physics and mathematics, FPT has applications in:
Quantitative Finance: Option pricing, risk management, and algorithmic trading
Neuroscience: Modeling neural firing patterns
Biology: Population dynamics and disease spread
Engineering: Reliability analysis and failure prediction
The Mathematics Behind It
This indicator uses Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM), the same stochastic model used in the Black-Scholes option pricing formula:
dS = μS dt + σS dW
Where:
S = Asset price
μ = Drift (trend component)
σ = Volatility (uncertainty component)
dW = Wiener process (random walk)
Through Monte Carlo simulation, the indicator runs 1,000+ price path simulations to statistically determine:
When each threshold (+X% or -X%) is likely to be hit
Which threshold is hit first (directional bias)
How often each scenario occurs (probability distribution)
🎯 How This Indicator Works
Core Algorithm Workflow:
Calculate Historical Statistics
Measures recent price volatility (standard deviation of log returns)
Calculates drift (average directional movement)
Annualizes these metrics for meaningful comparison
Run Monte Carlo Simulations
Generates 1,000+ random price paths based on historical behavior
Tracks when each path hits the upside (+X%) or downside (-X%) threshold
Records which threshold was hit first in each simulation
Aggregate Statistical Results
Calculates percentile distributions (10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th)
Computes "first hit" probabilities (upside vs downside)
Determines average and median time-to-target
Visual Representation
Displays thresholds as horizontal lines
Shows gradient risk zones (purple-to-blue)
Provides comprehensive statistics table
📈 Use Cases
1. Options Trading
Selling Options: Determine if your strike price is likely to be hit before expiration
Buying Options: Estimate probability of reaching profit targets within your time window
Time Decay Management: Compare expected time-to-target vs theta decay
Example: You're considering selling a 30-day call option 5% out of the money. The indicator shows there's a 72% chance price hits +5% within 12 days. This tells you the trade has high assignment risk.
2. Swing Trading
Entry Timing: Wait for higher probability setups when directional bias is strong
Target Setting: Use median time-to-target to set realistic profit expectations
Stop Loss Placement: Understand probability of hitting your stop before target
Example: The indicator shows 85% upside probability with median time of 3.2 days. You can confidently enter long positions with appropriate position sizing.
3. Risk Management
Position Sizing: Larger positions when probability heavily favors one direction
Portfolio Allocation: Reduce exposure when probabilities are near 50/50 (high uncertainty)
Hedge Timing: Know when to add protective positions based on downside probability
Example: Indicator shows 55% upside vs 45% downside—nearly neutral. This signals high uncertainty, suggesting reduced position size or wait for better setup.
4. Market Regime Detection
Trending Markets: High directional bias (70%+ one direction)
Range-bound Markets: Balanced probabilities (45-55% both directions)
Volatility Regimes: Compare actual vs theoretical minimum time
Example: Consistent 90%+ bullish bias across multiple timeframes confirms strong uptrend—stay long and avoid counter-trend trades.
First Hit Rate (Most Important!)
Shows which threshold is likely to be hit FIRST:
Upside %: Probability of hitting upside target before downside
Downside %: Probability of hitting downside target before upside
These always sum to 100%
⚠️ Warning: If you see "Low Hit Rate" warning, increase this parameter!
Advanced Parameters
Drift Mode
Allows you to explore different scenarios:
Historical: Uses actual recent trend (default—most realistic)
Zero (Neutral): Assumes no trend, only volatility (symmetric probabilities)
50% Reduced: Dampens trend effect (conservative scenario)
Use Case: Switch to "Zero (Neutral)" to see what happens in a pure volatility environment, useful for range-bound markets.
Distribution Type
Percentile: Shows 10%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 90% levels (recommended for most users)
Sigma: Shows standard deviation levels (1σ, 2σ)—useful for statistical analysis
⚠️ Important Limitations & Best Practices
Limitations
Assumes GBM: Real markets have fat tails, jumps, and regime changes not captured by GBM
Historical Parameters: Uses recent volatility/drift—may not predict regime shifts
No Fundamental Events: Cannot predict earnings, news, or macro shocks
Computational: Runs only on last bar—doesn't give historical signals
Remember: Probabilities are not certainties. Use this indicator as part of a comprehensive trading plan with proper risk management.
Created by: Henrique Centieiro. feedback is more than welcome!
Auto Hourly Deviations {Module+}Description
This indicator automatically calculates and visualizes the prior hour’s price structure and its deviation levels. By combining core reference lines (high, low, EQ, quarters, open) with dynamic deviation levels and shaded zones, it provides a framework for understanding intraday price behavior relative to the most recent hourly range.
The tool has three functional sections that work together:
Core Hourly Structure – Captures the prior hour’s high, low, EQ (50%), and quarter levels (25% and 75%), plus the current open.
Deviation Levels – Projects standardized deviation multiples (±0.33, ±0.5, ±0.66, ±1.0, ±1.33, ±1.66, ±2.0) above and below the prior hour’s range.
Shading & Anchoring – Fills zones between key deviation levels for visual emphasis, while allowing projection offsets and anchor line references for precise chart alignment.
Together, these layers give traders a structured map of price movement around hourly ranges, making it easier to track expansion, retracement, and trend continuation.
1. Core Hourly Structure
Plots the prior hour’s high and low as key reference points.
Automatically calculates EQ (midpoint), 25%, and 75% levels.
Tracks the open of the current hour for immediate orientation.
Optional anchor line marks the start of each hourly window for time alignment.
Use: Frames the “hourly box” and subdivides it for intraday structure analysis.
2. Deviation Levels
Uses the prior hour’s range as a baseline.
Projects deviation levels above and below: ±0.33, ±0.5, ±0.66, ±1.0, ±1.33, ±1.66, and ±2.0.
Each level can be individually toggled with full line/label styling.
Use: Quantifies how far price is moving relative to the last hour’s volatility — useful for spotting overextensions, retraces, and probable reaction zones.
3. Shading & Anchoring
Shaded zones between selected deviation bands (e.g., +0.33 to +0.66 or +1.33 to +1.66) highlight potential liquidity or reaction areas.
Projection offsets allow levels to extend forward into future bars for planning.
Labels and color controls make the chart highly customizable.
Use: Provides quick visual cues for potential trading ranges and deviations without clutter.
Intended Use
This is a visualization tool, not a buy/sell system. Traders can use it to:
Track how price interacts with the prior hour’s high/low.
Measure hourly expansion through deviation levels.
Spot retracements or continuation zones inside and beyond the prior hour’s range.
Limitations & Disclaimers
Levels are derived from completed hourly candles; they do not predict outcomes.
Deviations are static calculations and do not account for fundamentals or volatility shifts.
This indicator does not provide financial advice or trading signals.
For informational and educational purposes only.
Trading involves risk; always apply proper risk management.
Closed-source (Protected): Logic is accessible on charts, but the source code is hidden. A TradingView paid plan is required for protected indicators.
Distribution Quarter IndicatorThis indicator automatically draws vertical lines at the two most important distribution quarter times in the trading day:
6:00 AM NY time (Market preparation phase)
12:00 PM NY time (Midday distribution period)
Key Features:
✅ Automatic time detection - Uses NY timezone (UTC-4) for accurate timing
✅ Fully customizable lines - Choose between solid, dotted, or dashed styles
✅ Adjustable line width - Set thickness from 1-5 pixels
✅ Custom colors - Individual color settings for each time marker
✅ Optional labels - Toggle time labels on/off
✅ Historical coverage - Lines appear on all past and future data
Perfect For:
Day traders tracking distribution patterns
Scalpers identifying key time-based levels
Anyone analyzing intraday market structure around quarter periods
How to Use:
Customize line styles and colors in settings
Lines will automatically appear at the specified NY times
Use as reference points for distribution analysis
Distribution Quarter IndicatorThis indicator automatically draws vertical lines at the two most important distribution quarter times in the trading day:
6:00 AM NY time (Market preparation phase)
12:00 PM NY time (Midday distribution period)
Key Features:
✅ 15-minute timeframe only - Designed specifically for intraday distribution analysis
✅ Automatic time detection - Uses NY timezone (UTC-4) for accurate timing
✅ Fully customizable lines - Choose between solid, dotted, or dashed styles
✅ Adjustable line width - Set thickness from 1-5 pixels
✅ Custom colors - Individual color settings for each time marker
✅ Optional labels - Toggle time labels on/off
✅ Historical coverage - Lines appear on all past and future data
Perfect For:
Day traders tracking distribution patterns
Scalpers identifying key time-based levels
Anyone analyzing intraday market structure around quarter periods
How to Use:
Apply to any 15-minute chart
Customize line styles and colors in settings
Lines will automatically appear at the specified NY times
Use as reference points for distribution analysis
Note: Indicator only functions on 15-minute timeframes and includes a helpful reminder if used on other timeframes.
Distribution DaysThis script marks Distribution Days according to the Investors Business Daily method -- a significant decline on higher volume:
(1.) Price has declined > 0.2% from the prior day's close
(2.) Trading volume is greater than the prior day's volume
HTF Power of Three+ Limitless by Supreme
HTF Power of Three+ Limitless by Supreme
This indicator provides a high fidelity lens into the market's fundamental fractal rhythm.
For the professional trader who understands every candle is a story of accumulation manipulation and distribution this tool transcends the limitations of linear time analysis.
It offers an institutional grade panoramic dashboard of the Power of Three archetype operating seamlessly across any timeframe without constraint.
The core limitation of standard chart analysis is the boundary between timeframes.
This tool dissolves these walls presenting a fluid four dimensional view of market dynamics directly on your chart.
It transforms your perception by offering a continuous unbroken context of the higher timeframe narrative that governs all lower timeframe price action.
This is not merely another visualization tool.
It is a complete solution to the problem of temporal dissonance that plagues most traders.
The standard chart presents a flat fragmented reality.
You are forced to switch between timeframes losing your place and breaking your cognitive flow.
This constant friction degrades the quality of analysis and leads to missed opportunities or flawed execution.
The market is a fractal an infinitely repeating pattern across all scales of time.
Lower timeframe price movements are not random events.
They are the direct consequence of the objectives being pursued on higher timeframes.
To trade without this higher timeframe context is to navigate a storm without a compass guided only by the immediate chaotic waves.
This indicator provides that compass.
The Power of Three is the narrative structure embedded within every candle.
This concept posits that smart money engineers price through a deliberate three phase process.
First is the accumulation phase.
This is a period of relative equilibrium typically around the opening price where large institutions quietly build their positions.
It is the balance before the imbalance the coiling of a spring.
Second is the manipulation phase.
This is the critical judas swing or stop hunt designed to engineer liquidity.
Price is intentionally driven against the true intended direction to trip stop loss orders from breakout traders and induce uninformed participants to take the wrong side of the market.
Their selling becomes the liquidity for institutions to buy at better prices and vice versa.
Third is the distribution phase.
This is the true expansion move where price travels rapidly in the direction of institutional intent.
This is the clean efficient price leg that most trend following systems attempt to capture often after the most advantageous entry point has passed.
Understanding this three part structure is the key to aligning your trades with smart money flow.
This tool makes that entire process visible.
The current live higher timeframe candle is projected onto your chart as it forms.
This is not a static snapshot but a living representation of the ongoing campaign.
Every tick on your lower timeframe chart now has context.
You can see precisely if price is in the initial accumulation phase giving you time to prepare.
You can identify the manipulation phase as it happens allowing you to avoid being trapped or to position yourself for the reversal.
You can confirm the beginning of the distribution phase providing the confidence to engage with the true market move.
The indicator also displays the three previously completed higher timeframe candles.
This is not just historical data.
It is the immediate narrative context.
These three candles reveal the established order flow and the key price levels that matter.
The highs and lows of these candles are not arbitrary points.
They are institutional reference points magnets for liquidity and critical levels for targeting or invalidation.
A manipulation move will often seek the high or low of the previous candle before reversing.
The expansion move will often target the liquidity resting beyond a high or low from two candles prior.
This four candle panoramic view allows for sophisticated narrative construction.
You can build a high probability thesis for the trading session based on the interrelationship of these candles.
For example after a series of strong bullish higher timeframe closes a brief manipulative dip below the prior candle's open becomes a very high probability long entry.
Conversely a failure to expand above the previous candle's high after a strong run may signal exhaustion and an impending reversal.
The tool's architecture is built on a state of the art non redrawing framework.
All visual elements are created once and only their parameters are updated.
This eliminates redraw lag entirely ensuring a fluid instantaneous and seamless experience.
Your analytical environment will remain sharp responsive and completely unburdened even during extreme market volatility.
The engine is unbound by time.
Its logic is perfectly fractal.
A scalper on a one minute chart using a fifteen minute context gains the same clarity and follows the same principles as a swing trader on a daily chart using a weekly context.
The pattern is universal.
This tool makes its application universally accessible.
This is for the trader who is no longer satisfied with looking at the market through a keyhole.
It is for the analyst who demands a complete limitless and flawlessly performing view of the price delivery process.
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By installing this indicator you move from a fragmented view of price to a holistic four dimensional understanding of the market.
You achieve temporal coherence seeing the cause on the higher timeframe and the effect on the lower timeframe as a single unified process.
You begin to operate without the constraints of conventional charting.
Wyckoff Smart Money Pro [MTF]Wyckoff Smart Money Pro detects trading ranges, phases, and events from the Wyckoff method and confirms them with VSA (Volume Spread Analysis), divergence checks, and a composite “smart money” strength index. It generates optional buy/sell signals only when multiple conditions align (phase, VSA, CO strength, effort vs. result, time/volume filters). The dashboard, POC/Value Area, and MTF backdrop help you manage context and risk in real time.
What this indicator does
Wyckoff Smart Money Pro is a multi-timeframe Wyckoff tool that:
⦁ Finds accumulation/distribution ranges and tracks Phases A–E.
⦁ Labels Wyckoff events (PS, SC, AR, ST, Spring/Test, SOS, LPS, UTAD, SOW, LPSY, TS…) and VSA patterns (No Demand/Supply, Stopping Volume, Upthrust, etc.).
⦁ Computes a Composite Operator (CO) Strength score from price/volume behavior to approximate “smart money” bias.
⦁ Adds divergence, effort vs. result, and a volume profile (POC & 70% value area) inside the detected range.
⦁ Provides buy/sell signals only when a configurable confluence is present (events + VSA + CO + EVR + phase + filters).
⦁ Supports MTF context (with a safe HTF resolver and fallbacks) and an Info Dashboard to summarize the current state.
It is designed to make the Wyckoff workflow visual and rules-based without promising results or automating decisions.
How it works (methods & calculations)
1) Range & Phase model
⦁ A sliding lookback searches for a valid range (recent highest high/lowest low), requiring width within 2–10× ATR(14) and a minimum bar count inside the bounds.
⦁ Once a range is active, the script derives Creek/Ice/Mid/Quartiles and classifies bars into Wyckoff Phases A–E using event recency (barssince) and where price sits relative to the range.
⦁ The background color reflects the current Phase; optional MTF events (from the chosen HTF) tint the background lightly for higher-timeframe context.
2) Wyckoff & VSA event engine
⦁ Events include PS, SC, AR, ST, Spring, Test, SOS, LPS, PSY, BC, UTAD, SOW, LPSY, TS, plus minor/multiple variants and Creek/Ice jumps.
⦁ VSA patterns detect No Demand/No Supply, Stopping Volume, Buying/Selling Climax, Upthrust/Pseudo Upthrust, Bag Holding, Shake-Out, Volume Dry-Up, etc., from spread vs. average spread and volume vs. average volume with tunable thresholds.
3) Smart-money (CO) Strength
⦁ CO Strength (0–100) blends: relative volume on up/down bars, professional accumulation/distribution, no-supply/no-demand, stopping volume, Springs/UTADs and Tests, SOS/SOW, price’s position inside the range, and volume-delta vs. its MA.
⦁ Persistent accumCount / distCount counters smooth temporary noise.
4) Divergence & Effort-vs-Result
⦁ Price vs. cum volume-delta divergence highlights weakening pushes.
⦁ EVR flags “High effort / no result” and potential Bullish/Bearish reversals, or “Low effort / high result” moves that are often unsustainable.
5) Volume Profile (inside range)
⦁ A 50-bin profile accumulates volume across the detected range to derive POC, VAH/VAL (70% value area). Lines update as the active range evolves.
6) Multi-Timeframe (MTF) safety
⦁ getHTF() converts your multiplier to a valid Pine timeframe string (e.g., 60, 240, 2D, 1W), and the script falls back to current timeframe values if an HTF request returns na.
⦁ If you enter a Custom HTF, it must be strictly higher than the chart’s timeframe (validated at runtime).
7) Signals & risk model
⦁ Signals are not tied to any single pattern. A buy may require Spring/Test/Shake-out/Creek Jump or SOS plus confirmation (VSA, CO>60, Phase C/D, divergence/EVR context).
⦁ Sell is symmetrical (UTAD/Failed Spring/SOW/Ice Jump + VSA + CO<40 + Phase C/D).
⦁ Minimum confidence is configurable; SL/TP and R:R lines are drawn from range edges or recent bar extremes.
⦁ Filters: trading hours, weekend avoidance, and a minimum volume threshold (relative to average) are available to suppress low-quality contexts.
⦁ Alerts include all major events, divergences, structure/phase changes, and the gated Buy/Sell signals (with a cooldown to reduce alert spam).
Inputs (key ones you’ll actually use)
⦁ Display Settings: toggle ranges, phases, events, VSA, signals, dashboard.
⦁ MTF: Enable HTF, set Multiplier or a Custom HTF (must be higher than current).
⦁ Range Detection: period / min bars / pivot strength.
⦁ VSA: volume sensitivity & climax multiplier.
⦁ Signal Settings: minimum confidence, risk/reward labels.
⦁ Advanced Filters: trading hours, weekend avoidance, and Min Volume Filter (× avg).
⦁ Colors: phase backgrounds, structure colors, and line styling.
How to use (practical flow)
1. Choose a symbol & timeframe you normally analyze (e.g., 5–60m for entries, 4H/D for context).
2. If using MTF, pick a multiplier (e.g., 5×) or a Custom HTF (e.g., 240/4H).
3. Wait for a range to form; watch Phase and CO Strength on the Dashboard.
4. When events (e.g., Spring/Test in Phase C or UTAD in distribution) appear with favorable VSA, CO, EVR, and volume/time filters, consider the signal and review R:R lines.
5. Use POC/VA and Creek/Ice/Mid as structure references; manage risk around the range edge that generated the setup.
On-chart legend (what the letters mean)
Wyckoff events (labels)
⦁ PS Preliminary Support, SC Selling Climax, AR Automatic Rally, ST Secondary Test
⦁ Spring Spring; Test Test of Spring
⦁ SOS Sign of Strength; LPS Last Point of Support
⦁ PSY Preliminary Supply, BC Buying Climax
⦁ UTAD Upthrust After Distribution; SOW Sign of Weakness; LPSY Last Point of Supply
⦁ TS Terminal Shakeout; MS Multiple Spring
⦁ CJ Creek Jump; IJ Ice Jump
⦁ mSOS / mSOW Minor Sign of Strength/Weakness
VSA patterns (tiny labels)
⦁ ND No Demand, NS No Supply, SV Stopping Volume, BC/SC Buying/Selling Climax
⦁ PA/PD Professional Accumulation/Distribution, BH Bag Holding, DU Volume Dry-Up
⦁ SO Shake-Out, TS Test for Supply (VSA test), UT Upthrust, PUT Pseudo Upthrust
Other visuals
⦁ Range box with Creek (upper third), Ice (lower third), Mid, Quartiles
⦁ POC/VAH/VAL: yellow solid (POC), purple dotted (value area)
⦁ VWAP and Dynamic S/R (stepline)
⦁ Green/Red triangles: gated Buy/Sell signals (only if min confidence & filters are met)
⦁ Risk label near the triangle: confidence /10 and R:R
Alerts included
⦁ Core events (Spring/Test/UTAD/SOS/SOW/TS), secondary events (SC/AR/BC/LPS/LPSY), VSA patterns, EVR states, Hidden Accumulation/Distribution, HTF events, Divergences, Phase/Structure changes, and the constrained Buy/Sell signals with a cooldown.
Notes, limits & best practices
⦁ This is not a buy/sell system; it’s a context & confirmation tool. Combine with your plan, risk limits, and execution criteria.
⦁ Long, illiquid, or news-driven bars can distort volume/spread logic; filters help but cannot eliminate this.
⦁ For MTF, if an exchange doesn’t support a specific HTF, the script falls back safely to current TF values to avoid na-propagation.
⦁ Dashboard rows/size/position are user-configurable to keep charts uncluttered.
Changelog (what’s new in this version)
⦁ MTF safety & validation (Custom HTF must be above current; graceful fallbacks for request.security() na results).
⦁ Performance caching for close position & up/down bar flags; drawing cleanup to stay under label/line limits.
⦁ Volume Profile upgraded to 50 bins; VA algorithm adjusted accordingly.
⦁ Signal gating with time/day/volume filters and alert cooldown to reduce noise.
⦁ Bug guards for parameter conflicts (e.g., rangeMinBars cannot exceed rangePeriod).
Disclaimer
This script is for educational and research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Market risk is real; always test on a demo and trade at your own discretion.
Volume-Weighted Money Flow [sgbpulse]Overview
The VWMF indicator is an advanced technical analysis tool that combines and summarizes five leading momentum and volume indicators (OBV, PVT, A/D, CMF, MFI) into one clear oscillator. The indicator helps to provide a clear picture of market sentiment by measuring the pressure from buyers and sellers. Unlike single indicators, VWMF provides a comprehensive view of market money flow by weighting existing indicators and presenting them in a uniform and understandable format.
Indicator Components
VWMF combines the following indicators, each normalized to a range of 0 to 100 before being weighted:
On-Balance Volume (OBV): A cumulative indicator that measures positive and negative volume flow.
Price-Volume Trend (PVT): Similar to OBV, but incorporates relative price change for a more precise measure.
Accumulation/Distribution Line (A/D): Used to identify whether an asset is being bought (accumulated) or sold (distributed).
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF): Measures the money flow over a period based on the close price's position relative to the candle's range.
Money Flow Index (MFI): A momentum oscillator that combines price and volume to measure buying and selling pressure.
Understanding the Normalized Oscillators
The indicator combines the five different momentum indicators by normalizing each one to a uniform range of 0 to 100 .
Why is Normalization Important?
Indicators like OBV, PVT, and the A/D Line are cumulative indicators whose values can become very large. To assess their trend, we use a Moving Average as a dynamic reference line . The Moving Average allows us to understand whether the indicator is currently trending up or down relative to its average behavior over time.
How Does Normalization Work?
Our normalization fully preserves the original trend of each indicator.
For Cumulative Indicators (OBV, PVT, A/D): We calculate the difference between the current indicator value and its Moving Average. This difference is then passed to the normalization process.
- If the indicator is above its Moving Average, the difference will be positive, and the normalized value will be above 50.
- If the indicator is below its Moving Average, the difference will be negative, and the normalized value will be below 50.
Handling Extreme Values: To overcome the issue of extreme values in indicators like OBV, PVT, and the A/D Line , the function calculates the highest absolute value over the selected period. This value is used to prevent sharp spikes or drops in a single indicator from compromising the accuracy of the normalization over time. It's a sophisticated method that ensures the oscillators remain relevant and accurate.
For Bounded Indicators (CMF, MFI): These indicators already operate within a known range (for example, CMF is between -1 and 1, and MFI is between 0 and 100), so they are normalized directly without an additional reference line.
Reference Line Settings:
Moving Average Type: Allows the user to choose between a Simple Moving Average (SMA) and an Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
Volume Flow MA Length: Allows the user to set the lookback period for the Moving Average, which affects the indicator's sensitivity.
The 50 line serves as the new "center line." This ensures that, even after normalization, the determination of whether a specific indicator supports a bullish or bearish trend remains clear.
Settings and Visual Tools
The indicator offers several customization options to provide a rich analysis experience:
VWMF Oscillator (Blue Line): Represents the weighted average of all five indicators. Values above 50 indicate bullish momentum, and values below 50 indicate bearish momentum.
Strength Metrics (Bullish/Bearish Strength %): Two metrics that appear on the status line, showing the percentage of indicators supporting the current trend. They range from 0% to 100%, providing a quick view of the strength of the consensus.
Dynamic Background Colors: The background color of the chart automatically changes to bullish (a blue shade by default) or bearish (a default brown-gray shade) based on the trend. The transparency of the color shows the consensus strength—the more opaque the background, the more indicators support the trend.
Advanced Settings:
- Background Color Logic: Allows the user to choose the trigger for the background color: Weighted Value (based on the combined oscillator) or Strength (based on the majority of individual indicators).
- Weights: Provides full control over the weight of each of the five indicators in the final oscillator.
Using the Data Window
TradingView provides a useful Data Window that allows you to see the exact numerical values of each normalized oscillator separately, in addition to the trend strength data.
You can use this window to:
Get more detailed information on each indicator: Viewing the precise numerical data of each of the five indicators can help in making trading decisions.
Calibrate weights: If you want to manually adjust the indicator weights (in the settings menu), you can do so while tracking the impact of each indicator on the weighted oscillator in the Data Window.
The indicator's default setting is an equal weight of 20% for each of the five indicators.
Alert Conditions
The indicator comes with a variety of built-in alerts that can be configured through the TradingView alerts menu:
VWMF Cross Above 50: An alert when the VWMF oscillator crosses above the 50 line, indicating a potential bullish momentum shift.
VWMF Cross Below 50: An alert when the VWMF oscillator crosses below the 50 line, indicating a potential bearish momentum shift.
Bullish Strength: High But Not Absolute Consensus: An alert when the bullish trend strength reaches 60% or more but is less than 100%, indicating a high but not absolute consensus.
Bullish Strength at 100%: An alert when all five indicators (MFI, OBV, PVT, A/D, CMF) show bullish strength, indicating a full and absolute consensus.
Bearish Strength: High But Not Absolute Consensus: An alert when the bearish trend strength reaches 60% or more but is less than 100%, indicating a high but not absolute consensus.
Bearish Strength at 100%: An alert when all five indicators (MFI, OBV, PVT, A/D, CMF) show bearish strength, indicating a full and absolute consensus.
Summary
The VWMF indicator is a powerful, all-in-one tool for analyzing market momentum, money flow, and sentiment. By combining and normalizing five different indicators into a single oscillator, it offers a holistic and accurate view of the market's underlying trend. Its dynamic visual features and customizable settings, including the ability to adjust indicator weights, provide a flexible experience for both novice and experienced traders. The built-in alerts for momentum shifts and trend consensus make it an effective tool for spotting trading opportunities with confidence. In essence, VWMF distills complex market data into clear, actionable signals.
Important Note: Trading Risk
This indicator is intended for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for trading in any form whatsoever.
Trading in financial markets involves significant risk of capital loss. It is important to remember that past performance is not indicative of future results. All trading decisions are your sole responsibility. Never trade with money you cannot afford to lose.
Risk Distribution HistogramStatistical risk visualization and analysis tool for any ticker 📊
The Risk Distribution Histogram visualizes the statistical distribution of different risk metrics for any financial instrument. It converts risk data into histograms with quartile-based color coding, so that traders can understand their risk, tail-risks, exposure patterns and make data-driven decisions based on empirical evidence rather than assumptions.
The indicator supports multiple risk calculation methods, each designed for different aspects of market analysis, from general volatility assessment to tail risk analysis.
Risk Measurement Methods
Standard Deviation
Captures raw daily price volatility by measuring the dispersion of price movements. Ideal for understanding overall market conditions and timing volatility-based strategies.
Use case: Options trading and volatility analysis.
Average True Range (ATR)
Measures true range as a percentage of price, accounting for gaps and limit moves. Valuable for position sizing across different price levels.
Use case: Position sizing and stop-loss placement.
The chart above illustrates how ATR statistical distribution can be used by looking at the ATR % of price distribution. For example, 90% of the movements are below 5%.
Downside Deviation
Only considers negative price movements, making it ideal for checking downside risk and capital protection rather than capturing upside volatility.
Use case: Downside protection strategies and stop losses.
Drawdown Analysis
Tracks peak-to-trough declines, providing insight into maximum loss potential during different market conditions.
Use case: Risk management and capital preservation.
The chart above illustrates tale risk for the asset (TQQQ), showing that it is possible to have drawdowns higher than 20%.
Entropy-Based Risk (EVaR)
Uses information theory to quantify market uncertainty. Higher entropy values indicate more unpredictable price action, valuable for detecting regime changes.
Use case: Advanced risk modeling and tail-risk.
VIX Histogram
Incorporates the market's fear index directly into analysis, showing how current volatility expectations compare to historical patterns. The CAPITALCOM:VIX histogram is independent from the ticker on the chart.
Use case: Volatility trading and market timing.
Visual Features
The histogram uses quartile-based color coding that immediately shows where current risk levels stand relative to historical patterns:
Green (Q1): Low Risk (0-25th percentile)
Yellow (Q2): Medium-Low Risk (25-50th percentile)
Orange (Q3): Medium-High Risk (50-75th percentile)
Red (Q4): High Risk (75-100th percentile)
The data table provides detailed statistics, including:
Count Distribution: Historical observations in each bin
PMF: Percentage probability for each risk level
CDF: Cumulative probability up to each level
Current Risk Marker: Shows your current position in the distribution
Trading Applications
When current risk falls into upper quartiles (Q3 or Q4), it signals conditions are riskier than 50-75% of historical observations. This guides position sizing and portfolio adjustments.
Key applications:
Position sizing based on empirical risk distributions
Monitoring risk regime changes over time
Comparing risk patterns across timeframes
Risk distribution analysis improves trade timing by identifying when market conditions favor specific strategies.
Enter positions during low-risk periods (Q1)
Reduce exposure in high-risk periods (Q4)
Use percentile rankings for dynamic stop-loss placement
Time volatility strategies using distribution patterns
Detect regime shifts through distribution changes
Compare current conditions to historical benchmarks
Identify outlier events in tail regions
Validate quantitative models with empirical data
Configuration Options
Data Collection
Lookback Period: Control amount of historical data analyzed
Date Range Filtering: Focus on specific market periods
Sample Size Validation: Automatic reliability warnings
Histogram Customization
Bin Count: 10-50 bins for different detail levels
Auto/Manual Bin Width: Optimize for your data range
Visual Preferences: Custom colors and font sizes
Implementation Guide
Start with Standard Deviation on daily charts for the most intuitive introduction to distribution-based risk analysis.
Method Selection: Begin with Standard Deviation
Setup: Use daily charts with 20-30 bins
Interpretation: Focus on quartile transitions as signals
Monitoring: Track distribution changes for regime detection
The tool provides comprehensive statistics including mean, standard deviation, quartiles, and current position metrics like Z-score and percentile ranking.
Enjoy, and please let me know your feedback! 😊🥂
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) [ParadoxAlgo]OVERVIEW
This indicator implements the Chaikin Money Flow oscillator as an overlay on the price chart, designed to help traders identify institutional money flow patterns. The Chaikin Money Flow combines price and volume data to measure the flow of money into and out of a security, making it particularly useful for detecting accumulation and distribution phases.
WHAT IS CHAIKIN MONEY FLOW?
Chaikin Money Flow was developed by Marc Chaikin and measures the amount of Money Flow Volume over a specific period. The indicator oscillates between +1 and -1, where:
Positive values indicate money flowing into the security (accumulation)
Negative values indicate money flowing out of the security (distribution)
Values near zero suggest equilibrium between buying and selling pressure
CALCULATION METHOD
Money Flow Multiplier = ((Close - Low) - (High - Close)) / (High - Low)
Money Flow Volume = Money Flow Multiplier × Volume
CMF = Sum of Money Flow Volume over N periods / Sum of Volume over N periods
KEY FEATURES
Big Money Detection:
Identifies significant institutional activity when CMF exceeds user-defined thresholds
Requires volume confirmation (volume above average) to validate signals
Uses battery icon (🔋) for institutional buying and lightning icon (⚡) for institutional selling
Visual Elements:
Background coloring based on money flow direction
Support and resistance levels calculated using Average True Range
Real-time dashboard showing current CMF value, volume strength, and signal status
Customizable Parameters:
CMF Period: Calculation period for the money flow (default: 20)
Signal Smoothing: EMA smoothing applied to reduce noise (default: 5)
Big Money Threshold: CMF level required to trigger institutional signals (default: 0.15)
Volume Threshold: Volume multiplier required for signal confirmation (default: 1.5x)
INTERPRETATION
Signal Types:
🔋 (Battery): Indicates strong institutional buying when CMF > threshold with high volume
⚡ (Lightning): Indicates strong institutional selling when CMF < -threshold with high volume
Background color: Green tint for positive money flow, red tint for negative money flow
Dashboard Information:
CMF Value: Current Chaikin Money Flow reading
Volume: Current volume as a multiple of 20-period average
Big Money: Status of institutional activity (BUYING/SELLING/QUIET)
Signal: Strength assessment (STRONG/MEDIUM/WEAK)
TRADING APPLICATIONS
Trend Confirmation: Use CMF direction to confirm price trends
Divergence Analysis: Look for divergences between price and money flow
Volume Validation: Confirm breakouts with corresponding money flow
Accumulation/Distribution: Identify phases of institutional activity
PARAMETER RECOMMENDATIONS
Day Trading: CMF Period 14-21, higher sensitivity settings
Swing Trading: CMF Period 20-30, moderate sensitivity
Position Trading: CMF Period 30-50, lower sensitivity for major trends
ALERTS
Optional alert system notifies users when:
Big money buying is detected (CMF above threshold with volume confirmation)
Big money selling is detected (CMF below negative threshold with volume confirmation)
LIMITATIONS
May generate false signals in low-volume conditions
Best used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools
Effectiveness varies across different market conditions and timeframes
EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE
This open-source indicator is provided for educational purposes to help traders understand money flow analysis. It demonstrates the practical application of the Chaikin Money Flow concept with visual enhancements for easier interpretation.
TECHNICAL SPECIFICATIONS
Overlay indicator (displays on price chart)
No repainting - all calculations are based on closed bar data
Suitable for all timeframes and asset classes
Minimal resource usage for optimal performance
DISCLAIMER
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own analysis and consider risk management before making trading decisions.
Smarter Money Flow Divergence Detector [PhenLabs]📊 Smarter Money Flow Divergence Detector
Version: PineScript™ v6
📌 Description
SMFD was developed to help give you guys a better ability to “read” what is going on behind the scenes without directly having access to that level of data. SMFD is an enhanced divergence detection indicator that identifies money flow patterns from advanced volume analysis and price action correspondence. The detection portion of this indicator combines intelligent money flow calculations with multi timeframe volume analysis to help you see hidden accumulation and distribution phases before major price movements occur.
The indicator measures institutional trading activity by looking at volume surges, price volume dynamics, and the factors of momentum to construct an overall picture of market sentiment. It’s built to assist traders in identifying high probability entries by identifying if smart money is positioning against price action.
🚀 Points of Innovation
● Advanced Smart Money Flow algorithm with volume spike detection and large trade weighting
● Multi timeframe volume analysis for enhanced institutional activity detection
● Dynamic overbought/oversold zones that adapt to current market conditions
● Enhanced divergence detection with pivot confirmation and strength validation
● Color themes with customizable visual styling options
● Real time institutional bias tracking through accumulation/distribution analysis
🔧 Core Components
● Smart Money Flow Calculation: Combines price momentum, volume expansion, and VWAP analysis
● Institutional Bias Oscillator: Tracks accumulation/distribution patterns with volume pressure analysis
● Enhanced Divergence Engine: Detects bullish/bearish divergences with multiple confirmation factors
● Dynamic Zone Detection: Automatically adjusts overbought/oversold levels based on market volatility
● Volume Pressure Analysis: Measures buying vs selling pressure over configurable periods
● Multi factor Signal System: Generates entries with trend alignment and strength validation
🔥 Key Features
● Smart Money Flow Period: Configurable calculation period for institutional activity detection
● Volume Spike Threshold: Adjustable multiplier for detecting unusual institutional volume
● Large Trade Weight: Emphasis factor for high volume periods in flow calculations
● Pivot Detection: Customizable lookback period for accurate divergence identification
● Signal Sensitivity: Three tier system (Conservative/Medium/Aggressive) for signal generation
● Themes: Four color schemes optimized for different chart backgrounds
🎨 Visualization
● Main Oscillator: Line, Area, or Histogram display styles with dynamic color coding
● Institutional Bias Line: Real time tracking of accumulation/distribution phases
● Dynamic Zones: Adaptive overbought/oversold boundaries with gradient fills
● Divergence Lines: Automatic drawing of bullish/bearish divergence connections
● Entry Signals: Clear BUY/SELL labels with signal strength indicators
● Information Panel: Real time statistics and status updates in customizable positions
📖 Usage Guidelines
Algorithm Settings
● Smart Money Flow Period
○ Default: 20
○ Range: 5-100
○ Description: Controls the calculation period for institutional flow analysis.
Higher values provide smoother signals but reduce responsiveness to recent activity
● Volume Spike Threshold
○ Default: 1.8
○ Range: 1.0-5.0
○ Description: Multiplier for detecting unusual volume activity indicating institutional participation. Higher values require more extreme volume for detection
● Large Trade Weight
○ Default: 2.5
○ Range: 1.5-5.0
○ Description: Weight applied to high volume periods in smart money calculations. Increases emphasis on institutional sized transactions
Divergence Detection
● Pivot Detection Period
○ Default: 12
○ Range: 5-50
○ Description: Bars to analyze for pivot high/low identification.
Affects divergence accuracy and signal frequency
● Minimum Divergence Strength
○ Default: 0.25
○ Range: 0.1-1.0
○ Description: Required price change percentage for valid divergence patterns.
Higher values filter out weaker signals
✅ Best Use Cases
● Trading with intraday to daily timeframes for institutional position identification
● Confirming trend reversals when divergences align with support/resistance levels
● Entry timing in trending markets when institutional bias supports the direction
● Risk management by avoiding trades against strong institutional positioning
● Multi timeframe analysis combining short term signals with longer term bias
⚠️ Limitations
● Requires sufficient volume for accurate institutional detection in low volume markets
● Divergence signals may have false positives during highly volatile news events
● Best performance on liquid markets with consistent institutional participation
● Lagging nature of volume based calculations may delay signal generation
● Effectiveness reduced during low participation holiday periods
💡 What Makes This Unique
● Multi Factor Analysis: Combines volume, price, and momentum for comprehensive institutional detection
● Adaptive Zones: Dynamic overbought/oversold levels that adjust to market conditions
● Volume Intelligence: Advanced algorithms identify institutional sized transactions
● Professional Visualization: Multiple display styles with customizable themes
● Confirmation System: Multiple validation layers reduce false signal generation
🔬 How It Works
1. Volume Analysis Phase:
● Analyzes current volume against historical averages to identify institutional activity
● Applies multi timeframe analysis for enhanced detection accuracy
● Calculates volume pressure through buying vs selling momentum
2. Smart Money Flow Calculation:
● Combines typical price with volume weighted analysis
● Applies institutional trade weighting for high volume periods
● Generates directional flow based on price momentum and volume expansion
3. Divergence Detection Process:
● Identifies pivot highs/lows in both price and indicator values
● Validates divergence strength against minimum threshold requirements
● Confirms signals through multiple technical factors before generation
💡 Note: This indicator works best when combined with proper risk management and position sizing. The institutional bias component helps identify market sentiment shifts, while divergence signals provide specific entry opportunities. For optimal results, use on liquid markets with consistent institutional participation and combine with additional technical analysis methods.
MVRV Ratio [Alpha Extract]The MVRV Ratio Indicator provides valuable insights into Bitcoin market cycles by tracking the relationship between market value and realized value. This powerful on-chain metric helps traders identify potential market tops and bottoms, offering clear buy and sell signals based on historical patterns of Bitcoin valuation.
🔶 CALCULATION The indicator processes MVRV ratio data through several analytical methods:
Raw MVRV Data: Collects MVRV data directly from INTOTHEBLOCK for Bitcoin
Optional Smoothing: Applies simple moving average (SMA) to reduce noise
Status Classification: Categorizes market conditions into four distinct states
Signal Generation: Produces trading signals based on MVRV thresholds
Price Estimation: Calculates estimated realized price (Current price / MVRV ratio)
Historical Context: Compares current values to historical extremes
Formula:
MVRV Ratio = Market Value / Realized Value
Smoothed MVRV = SMA(MVRV Ratio, Smoothing Length)
Estimated Realized Price = Current Price / MVRV Ratio
Distance to Top = ((3.5 / MVRV Ratio) - 1) * 100
Distance to Bottom = ((MVRV Ratio / 0.8) - 1) * 100
🔶 DETAILS Visual Features:
MVRV Plot: Color-coded line showing current MVRV value (red for overvalued, orange for moderately overvalued, blue for fair value, teal for undervalued)
Reference Levels: Horizontal lines indicating key MVRV thresholds (3.5, 2.5, 1.0, 0.8)
Zone Highlighting: Background color changes to highlight extreme market conditions (red for potentially overvalued, blue for potentially undervalued)
Information Table: Comprehensive dashboard showing current MVRV value, market status, trading signal, price information, and historical context
Interpretation:
MVRV ≥ 3.5: Potential market top, strong sell signal
MVRV ≥ 2.5: Overvalued market, consider selling
MVRV 1.5-2.5: Neutral market conditions
MVRV 1.0-1.5: Fair value, consider buying
MVRV < 1.0: Potential market bottom, strong buy signal
🔶 EXAMPLES
Market Top Identification: When MVRV ratio exceeds 3.5, the indicator signals potential market tops, highlighting periods where Bitcoin may be significantly overvalued.
Example: During bull market peaks, MVRV exceeding 3.5 has historically preceded major corrections, helping traders time their exits.
Bottom Detection: MVRV values below 1.0, especially approaching 0.8, have historically marked excellent buying opportunities.
Example: During bear market bottoms, MVRV falling below 1.0 has identified the most profitable entry points for long-term Bitcoin accumulation.
Tracking Market Cycles: The indicator provides a clear visualization of Bitcoin's market cycles from undervalued to overvalued states.
Example: Following the progression of MVRV from below 1.0 through fair value and eventually to overvalued territory helps traders position themselves appropriately throughout Bitcoin's market cycle.
Realized Price Support: The estimated realized price often acts as a significant
support/resistance level during market transitions.
Example: During corrections, price often finds support near the realized price level calculated by the indicator, providing potential entry points.
🔶 SETTINGS
Customization Options:
Smoothing: Toggle smoothing option and adjust smoothing length (1-50)
Table Display: Show/hide the information table
Table Position: Choose between top right, top left, bottom right, or bottom left positions
Visual Elements: All plots, lines, and background highlights can be customized for color and style
The MVRV Ratio Indicator provides traders with a powerful on-chain metric to identify potential market tops and bottoms in Bitcoin. By tracking the relationship between market value and realized value, this indicator helps identify periods of overvaluation and undervaluation, offering clear buy and sell signals based on historical patterns. The comprehensive information table delivers valuable context about current market conditions, helping traders make more informed decisions about market positioning throughout Bitcoin's cyclical patterns.
AccumulationPro Money Flow StrategyAccumulationPro Money Flow Strategy identifies stock trading opportunities by analyzing money flow and potential long-only opportunities following periods of increased money inflow. It employs proprietary responsive indicators and oscillators to gauge the strength and momentum of the inflow relative to previous periods, detecting money inflow, buying/selling pressure, and potential continuation/reversals, while using trailing stop exits to maximize gains while minimizing losses, with careful consideration of risk management and position sizing.
Setup Instructions:
1. Configuring the Strategy Properties:
Click the "Settings" icon (the gear symbol) next to the strategy name.
Navigate to the "Properties" tab within the Settings window.
Initial Capital: This value sets the starting equity for the strategy backtesting. Keep in mind that you will need to specify your current account size in the "Inputs" settings for position sizing.
Base Currency: Leave this setting at its "Default" value.
Order Size: This setting, which determines the capital used for each trade during backtesting, is automatically calculated and updated by the script. You should leave it set to "1 Contract" and the script will calculate the appropriate number of contracts based on your risk per trade, account size, and stop-loss placement.
Pyramiding: Set this setting at 1 order to prevent the strategy from adding to existing positions.
Commission: Enter your broker's commission fee per trade as a percentage, some brokers might offer commission free trading. Verify Price for limit orders: Keep this value as 0 ticks.
Slippage: This value depends on the instrument you are trading, If you are trading liquid stocks on a 1D chart slippage might be neglected. You can Keep this value as 1 ticks if you want to be conservative.
Margin for long positions/short positions: Set both of these to 100% since this strategy does not employ leverage or margin trading.
Recalculate:
Select the "After order is filled" option.
Select the "On every tick" option.
Fill Orders: Keep “Using bar magnifier” unselected.
Select "On bar close". Select "Using standard OHLC"
2. Configuring the Strategy Inputs:
Click the "Inputs" tab in the Settings window.
From/Thru (Date Range): To effectively backtest the strategy, define a substantial period that includes various bullish and bearish cycles. This ensures the testing window captures a range of market conditions and provides an adequate number of trades. It is usually favorable to use a minimum of 8 years for backtesting. Ensure the "Show Date Range" box is checked.
Account Size: This is your actual current Account Size used in the position sizing table calculations.
Risk on Capital %: This setting allows you to specify the percentage of your capital you are willing to risk on each trade. A common value is 0.5%.
3. Configuring Strategy Style:
Select the "Style" tab.
Select the checkbox for “Stop Loss” and “Stop Loss Final” to display the black/red Average True Range Stop Loss step-lines
Make sure the checkboxes for "Upper Channel", "Middle Line", and "Lower Channel" are selected.
Select the "Plots Background" checkboxes for "Color 0" and "Color 1" so that the potential entry and exit zones become color-coded.
Having the checkbox for "Tables" selected allows you to see position sizing and other useful information within the chart.
Have the checkboxes for "Trades on chart" and "Signal Labels" selected for viewing entry and exit point labels and positions.
Uncheck* the "Quantity" checkbox.
Precision: select “Default”.
Check “Labels on price scale”
Check “Values in status line”
Strategy Application Guidelines:
Entry Conditions:
The strategy identifies long entry opportunities based on substantial money inflow, as detected by our proprietary indicators and oscillators. This assessment considers the strength and momentum of the inflow relative to previous periods, in conjunction with strong price momentum (indicated by our modified, less-lagging MACD) and/or a potential price reversal (indicated by our modified, less-noisy Stochastic). Additional confirmation criteria related to price action are also incorporated. Potential entry and exit zones are visually represented by bands on the chart.
A blue upward-pointing arrow, accompanied by the label 'Long' and green band fills, signifies a long entry opportunity. Conversely, a magenta downward-pointing arrow, labeled 'Close entry(s) order Long' with yellow band fills, indicates a potential exit.
Take Profit:
The strategy employs trailing stops, rather than fixed take-profit levels, to maximize gains while minimizing losses. Trailing stops adjust the stop-loss level as the stock price moves in a favorable direction. The strategy utilizes two types of trailing stop mechanisms: one based on the Average True Range (ATR), and another based on price action, which attempts to identify shifts in price momentum.
Stop Loss:
The strategy uses an Average True Range (ATR)-based stop-loss, represented by two lines on the chart. The black line indicates the primary ATR-based stop-loss level, set upon trade entry. The red line represents a secondary ATR stop-loss buffer, used in the position sizing calculation to account for potential slippage or price gaps.
To potentially reduce the risk of stop-hunting, discretionary traders might consider using a market sell order within the final 30 to 60 minutes of the main session, instead of automated stop-loss orders.
Order Types:
Market Orders are intended for use with this strategy, specifically when the candle and signal on the chart stabilize within the final 30 to 60 minutes of the main trading session.
Position Sizing:
A key aspect of this strategy is that its position size is calculated and displayed in a table on the chart. The position size is calculated based on stop-loss placement, including the stop-loss buffer, and the capital at risk per trade which is commonly set around 0.5% Risk on Capital per Trade.
Backtesting:
The backtesting results presented below the chart are for informational purposes only and are not intended to predict future performance. Instead, they serve as a tool for identifying instruments with which the strategy has historically performed well.
It's important to note that the backtester utilizes a tiny portion of the capital for each trade while our strategy relies on a diversified portfolio of multiple stocks or instruments being traded at once.
Important Considerations:
Volume data is crucial; the strategy will not load or function correctly without it. Ensure that your charts include volume data, preferably from a centralized exchange.
Our system is designed for trading a portfolio. Therefore, if you intend to use our system, you should employ appropriate position sizing, without leverage or margin, and seek out a variety of long opportunities, rather than opening a single trade with an excessively large position size.
If you are trading without automated signals, always allow the chart to stabilize. Refrain from taking action until the final 1 hour to 30 minutes before the end of the main trading session to minimize the risk of acting on false signals.
To align with the strategy's design, it's generally preferable to enter a trade during the same session that the signal appears, rather than waiting for a later session.
Disclaimer:
Trading in financial markets involves a substantial degree of risk. You should be aware of the potential for significant financial losses. It is imperative that you trade responsibly and avoid overtrading, as this can amplify losses. Remember that market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. You could lose some or all of your initial investment. It is strongly recommended that you fully understand the risks involved in trading and seek independent financial advice from a qualified professional before using this strategy.
Statistical Trailing Stop [LuxAlgo]The Statistical Trailing Stop tool offers traders a way to lock in profits in trending markets with four statistical levels based on the log-normal distribution of volatility.
The indicator also features a dashboard with statistics of all detected signals.
🔶 USAGE
The tool works out of the box, traders can adjust the data used with two parameters: data & distribution length.
By default, the tool takes volatility measures of groups of 10 candles, and statistical measures of the last 100 of these groups then traders can adjust the base level to use as trailing, the larger the level, the more resistant the tool will be to moves against the trend.
🔹 Base Levels
Traders can choose up to 4 different levels of trailing, all based on the statistical distribution of volatility.
As we can see in the chart above, each higher level is more resistant to market movements, so level 0 is the most reactive and level 3 the least.
It is up to the trader to determine the best level for each underlying, time frame and market conditions.
🔹 Dashboard
The tool provides a dashboard with the statistics of all trades, making it very easy to assess the performance of the parameters used for any given market.
As we can see on the chart, all Daily BTC signals with default parameters but different base levels, level 2 is the best performing of all four, giving a positive expectation of $2435 per trade, taking into account all long and short trades.
Of note are the long trades with a win rate of 76.47% and a risk-to-reward of 3.34, giving a positive expectation of $4839 per trade, with winners having an average duration of 210 days and losers 32 days.
This, compared to short trades with negative expectation, speaks to the uptrend bias of this particular market.
🔶 SETTINGS
Data Length: Select how many bars to use per data point
Distribution Length: Select how many data points the distribution will have
Base Level: Choose between 4 different trailing levels
🔹 Dashboard
Show Statistics: Enable/disable dashboard
Position: Select dashboard position
Size: Select dashboard size
OBV & AD Oscillators with Dual Smoothing OptionsOn Balance Volume and Accumulation/Distribution
Overlaid into 1 and then some,
Now it is an oscillator!
3 customizable moving average types
- Ehlers Deviation Scaled Moving Average
- Volatility Dynamic Moving Average
- Simple Moving Average
Each with customizable periods
And with the ability to overlay a second set too
Default Settings have a longer period MA of 377 using Ehlers DSMA to better capture the standard view of OBV and A/D.
An extra overlay of a shorter period using a Volatility DMA uses Average True Range with its own custom settings, seeks to act more as an RSI
Smart MACD Reversal Oscillator Pro [TradeDots]The TradeDots Smart MACD Reversal Oscillator Pro is an advanced technical analysis tool that combines traditional MACD functionality with multi-layered signal detection and divergence identification systems. This comprehensive oscillator helps traders identify potential market reversals, trend continuations, and extremes with greater precision than conventional indicators.
📝 HOW IT WORKS
Accumulation & Distribution Detection System
The indicator begins with a proprietary calculation that identifies potential accumulation and distribution phases:
Calculation: Processes EMA differentials with specific time constants to detect underlying accumulation/distribution pressure
Visualization: Green-filled areas indicate accumulation phases (bullish pressure building) while red-filled areas show distribution phases (bearish pressure building)
Significance: This system often identifies trend reversals before traditional indicators by detecting institutional buying/selling activity
Multi-Timeframe MACD Implementation
Unlike traditional MACD indicators that use a single timeframe, this oscillator incorporates multiple calculation methods:
1. Primary Oscillator: Uses a proprietary calculation that combines price extremes with smoothed averages:
Implements specialized moving average types (SMMA and ZLEMA)
Generates a histogram that changes color based on price position relative to these averages
Produces a signal line that identifies crossover opportunities
2. Secondary MACD: Traditional MACD implementation with customizable parameters:
User-selectable MA types (SMA/EMA) for both oscillator and signal line
Color-coded histogram for momentum visualization
Separate crossover detection system
Dynamic Band System
The indicator implements an innovative dynamic band system to identify overbought and oversold conditions:
Band Calculation: Analyzes historical oscillator values to establish statistically significant extremes
Adaptive Scaling: Automatically adjusts to different market volatility regimes using a customizable Y-axis scale factor
Signal Integration: Incorporates band levels into signal generation for higher-probability trades
Signal Generation System
Four distinct signal types are generated to identify potential trading opportunities:
Green Dots: Bullish crossover signals (primary oscillator crosses above signal line)
Red Dots: Bearish crossover signals (primary oscillator crosses below signal line)
Blue Dots: Secondary MACD bullish crossovers in oversold territory
Orange Dots: Secondary MACD bearish crossovers in overbought territory
Advanced Divergence Detection
The oscillator incorporates a sophisticated divergence detection system:
Regular Divergences: Identifies when price makes lower lows while the oscillator makes higher lows (bullish) or price makes higher highs while the oscillator makes lower highs (bearish)
Hidden Divergences: Optional detection of continuation patterns (currently disabled by default)
Visual Markers: Clear labels identifying divergence formations directly on the chart
Zero-Line Filter: Optional filtering to only detect divergences that don't cross the zero line
🛠️ HOW TO USE
Signal Interpretation
Momentum Direction
Histogram Color: Green shades indicate bullish momentum, red shades indicate bearish momentum
Oscillator Position: Above zero indicates bullish momentum, below zero indicates bearish momentum
Filled Background: Green fill shows accumulation phases, red fill shows distribution phases
Buy Signals (In Order of Strength)
Bullish Divergence + Green Dot: Highest probability reversal signal (price making lower lows while oscillator makes higher lows, followed by crossover)
Green Dot Below Short Average Line: Strong oversold reversal signal
Green Dot + Blue Dot Alignment: Multiple indicator confirmation
Green Dot During Green Fill Expansion: Trend continuation signal
Sell Signals (In Order of Strength)
Bearish Divergence + Red Dot: Highest probability reversal signal (price making higher highs while oscillator makes lower highs, followed by crossover)
Red Dot Above Long Average Line: Strong overbought reversal signal
Red Dot + Orange Dot Alignment: Multiple indicator confirmation
Red Dot During Red Fill Expansion: Trend continuation signal
Trading Strategies
Divergence Trading Strategy
Identify "Bullish" or "Bearish" divergence labels on the chart
Wait for confirming dot signal in the same direction
Enter when both divergence and dot signal align
Set stops based on recent swing points
Target the opposite band or previous significant level
Overbought/Oversold Reversal Strategy
Wait for the oscillator to reach extreme bands (Long or Short Average lines)
Look for crossover signals at these extreme levels:
Bullish Crossover (Oversold): Green dots when oscillator is below Short Average
Bearish Crossover (Overbought): Red dots when oscillator is above Long Average
Enter when price confirms the reversal
Set stops beyond the recent extreme
Target the opposite band or at least the zero line
Multi-Confirmation Strategy
For highest probability trades, look for:
Multiple signal types aligning (e.g., Green + Blue dots or Red + Orange dots)
Signals occurring at band extremes
Divergence patterns reinforcing the signal direction
Background fill color supporting the signal (green fill for buys, red fill for sells)
⚙️ CUSTOMIZATION OPTIONS
The indicator offers extensive customization to adapt to different markets and trading styles:
Y-axis scale factor: Controls the band range multiplier (default 2.5)
Parameter 1: Controls the smoothing period for main calculations (default 8)
Parameter 2: Controls the signal line calculation period (default 9)
Fast/Slow Length: Controls traditional MACD calculation periods (12/26)
Oscillator MA Type: Selection between SMA and EMA for main oscillator
Signal Line MA Type: Selection between SMA and EMA for signal line
Divergence Settings: Customizable lookback parameters and display options
Don't touch the zero line?: Toggle option for divergence filtering
❗️LIMITATIONS
Signal Lag: The system identifies reversals after they have begun, potentially missing the absolute bottom or top
False Signals: Can occur during periods of high volatility or during ranging markets
Divergence Validation: Not all divergences lead to reversals; confirmation is essential
Timeframe Sensitivity: The indicator works best on intermediate timeframes (15m to 4h) for most markets
Bar Closing Requirement: All signals are based on closed candles and may be subject to change until the candle closes
RISK DISCLAIMER
Trading involves substantial risk, and most traders may incur losses. All content, tools, scripts, articles, and education provided by TradeDots are for informational and educational purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
This oscillator should be used as part of a complete trading approach that includes proper risk management, consideration of the broader market context, and confirmation from price action patterns. No trading system can guarantee profits, and users should always exercise caution and use appropriate position sizing.
Elastic Volume-Weighted Student-T TensionOverview
The Elastic Volume-Weighted Student-T Tension Bands indicator dynamically adapts to market conditions using an advanced statistical model based on the Student-T distribution. Unlike traditional Bollinger Bands or Keltner Channels, this indicator leverages elastic volume-weighted averaging to compute real-time dispersion and location parameters, making it highly responsive to volatility changes while maintaining robustness against price fluctuations.
This methodology is inspired by incremental calculation techniques for weighted mean and variance, as outlined in the paper by Tony Finch:
📄 "Incremental Calculation of Weighted Mean and Variance" .
Key Features
✅ Adaptive Volatility Estimation – Uses an exponentially weighted Student-T model to dynamically adjust band width.
✅ Volume-Weighted Mean & Dispersion – Incorporates real-time volume weighting, ensuring a more accurate representation of market sentiment.
✅ High-Timeframe Volume Normalization – Provides an option to smooth volume impact by referencing a higher timeframe’s cumulative volume, reducing noise from high-variability bars.
✅ Customizable Tension Parameters – Configurable standard deviation multipliers (σ) allow for fine-tuned volatility sensitivity.
✅ %B-Like Oscillator for Relative Price Positioning – The main indicator is in form of a dedicated oscillator pane that normalizes price position within the sigma ranges, helping identify overbought/oversold conditions and potential momentum shifts.
✅ Robust Statistical Foundation – Utilizes kurtosis-based degree-of-freedom estimation, enhancing responsiveness across different market conditions.
How It Works
Volume-Weighted Elastic Mean (eμ) – Computes a dynamic mean price using an elastic weighted moving average approach, influenced by trade volume, if not volume detected in series, study takes true range as replacement.
Dispersion (eσ) via Student-T Distribution – Instead of assuming a fixed normal distribution, the bands adapt to heavy-tailed distributions using kurtosis-driven degrees of freedom.
Incremental Calculation of Variance – The indicator applies Tony Finch’s incremental method for computing weighted variance instead of arithmetic sum's of fixed bar window or arrays, improving efficiency and numerical stability.
Tension Calculation – There are 2 dispersion custom "zones" that are computed based on the weighted mean and dynamically adjusted standard student-t deviation.
%B-Like Oscillator Calculation – The oscillator normalizes the price within the band structure, with values between 0 and 1:
* 0.00 → Price is at the lower band (-2σ).
* 0.50 → Price is at the volume-weighted mean (eμ).
* 1.00 → Price is at the upper band (+2σ).
* Readings above 1.00 or below 0.00 suggest extreme movements or possible breakouts.
Recommended Usage
For scalping in lower timeframes, it is recommended to use the fixed α Decay Factor, it is in raw format for better control, but you can easily make a like of transformation to N-bar size window like in EMA-1 bar dividing 2 / decayFactor or like an RMA dividing 1 / decayFactor.
The HTF selector catch quite well Higher Time Frame analysis, for example using a Daily chart and using as HTF the 200-day timeframe, weekly or monthly.
Suitable for trend confirmation, breakout detection, and mean reversion plays.
The %B-like oscillator helps gauge momentum strength and detect divergences in price action if user prefer a clean chart without bands, this thanks to pineScript v6 force overlay feature.
Ideal for markets with volume-driven momentum shifts (e.g., futures, forex, crypto).
Customization Parameters
Fixed α Decay Factor – Controls the rate of volume weighting influence for an approximation EWMA approach instead of using sum of series or arrays, making the code lightweight & computing fast O(1).
HTF Volume Smoothing – Instead of a fixed denominator for computing α , a volume sum of the last 2 higher timeframe closed candles are used as denominator for our α weight factor. This is useful to review mayor trends like in daily, weekly, monthly.
Tension Multipliers (±σ) – Adjusts sensitivity to dispersion sigma parameter (volatility).
Oscillator Zone Fills – Visual cues for price positioning within the cloud range.
Posible Interpretations
As market within indicators relay on each individual edge, this are just some key ideas to glimpse how the indicator could be interpreted by the user:
📌 Price inside bands – Market is considered somehow "stable"; price is like resting from tension or "charging batteries" for volume spike moves.
📌 Price breaking outer bands – Potential breakout or extreme movement; watch for reversals or continuation from strong moves. Market is already in tension or generating it.
📌 Narrowing Bands – Decreasing volatility; expect contraction before expansion.
📌 Widening Bands – Increased volatility; prepare for high probability pull-back moves, specially to the center location of the bands (the mean) or the other side of them.
📌 Oscillator is just the interpretation of the price normalized across the Student-T distribution fitting "curve" using the location parameter, our Elastic Volume weighted mean (eμ) fixed at 0.5 value.
Final Thoughts
The Elastic Volume-Weighted Student-T Tension indicator provides a powerful, volume-sensitive alternative to traditional volatility bands. By integrating real-time volume analysis with an adaptive statistical model, incremental variance computation, in a relative price oscillator that can be overlayed in the chart as bands, it offers traders an edge in identifying momentum shifts, trend strength, and breakout potential. Think of the distribution as a relative "tension" rubber band in which price never leave so far alone.
DISCLAIMER:
The Following indicator/code IS NOT intended to be a formal investment advice or recommendation by the author, nor should be construed as such. Users will be fully responsible by their use regarding their own trading vehicles/assets.
The following indicator was made for NON LUCRATIVE ACTIVITIES and must remain as is, following TradingView's regulations. Use of indicator and their code are published for work and knowledge sharing. All access granted over it, their use, copy or re-use should mention authorship(s) and origin(s).
WARNING NOTICE!
THE INCLUDED FUNCTION MUST BE CONSIDERED FOR TESTING. The models included in the indicator have been taken from open sources on the web and some of them has been modified by the author, problems could occur at diverse data sceneries, compiler version, or any other externality.
Wyckoff Event Detection [Alpha Extract]Wyckoff Event Detection
A powerful and intelligent indicator designed to detect key Wyckoff events in real time, helping traders analyze market structure and anticipate potential trend shifts. Using volume and price action, this script automatically identifies distribution and accumulation phases, providing traders with valuable insights into market behavior.
🔶 Phase-Based Detection
Utilizes a phase detection algorithm that evaluates price and volume conditions to identify accumulation (bullish) and distribution (bearish) events. This method ensures the script effectively captures major market turning points and avoids noise.
🔶 Multi-Factor Event Recognition
Incorporates multiple event conditions, including upthrusts, selling climaxes, and springs, to detect high-probability entry and exit points. Each event is filtered through customizable sensitivity settings, ensuring precise detection aligned with different trading styles.
🔶 Customizable Parameters
Fine-tune event detection with adjustable thresholds for volume, price movement, trend strength, and event spacing. These inputs allow traders to personalize the script to match their strategy and risk tolerance.
// === USER INPUTS ===
i_volLen = input.int(20, "Volume MA Length", minval=1)
i_priceLookback = input.int(20, "Price Pattern Lookback", minval=5)
i_lineLength = input.int(15, "Line Length", minval=5)
i_labelSpacing = input.int(5, "Minimum Label Spacing (bars)", minval=1, maxval=20)
❓How It Works
🔶 Event Identification
The script scans for key Wyckoff events by analyzing volume spikes, price deviations, and trend shifts within a user-defined lookback period. It categorizes events into bullish (accumulation) or bearish (distribution) structures and plots them directly on the chart.
// === EVENT DETECTION ===
volMA = ta.sma(volume, i_volLen)
highestHigh = ta.highest(high, i_priceLookback)
lowestLow = ta.lowest(low, i_priceLookback)
🔶 Automatic Filtering & Cleanup
Unconfirmed or weak signals are filtered out using customizable strength multipliers and volume thresholds. Events that do not meet the minimum conditions are discarded to keep the chart clean and informative.
🔶 Phase Strength Analysis
The script continuously tracks bullish and bearish event counts to determine whether the market is currently in an accumulation, distribution, or neutral phase. This allows traders to align their strategies accordingly.
🔶 Visual Alerts & Labels
Detects and labels key Wyckoff events directly on the chart, providing immediate insights into market conditions:
- PSY (Preliminary Supply) and UT (Upthrust) for distribution phases.
- PS (Preliminary Support) and SC (Selling Climax) for accumulation phases.
- Labels adjust dynamically to avoid chart clutter and improve readability.
🔶 Entry & Exit Optimization
By highlighting supply and demand imbalances, the script assists traders in identifying optimal entry and exit points. Wyckoff concepts such as springs and upthrusts provide clear trade signals based on market structure.
🔶 Trend Confirmation & Risk Management
Observing how price reacts to detected events helps confirm trend direction and potential reversals. Traders can place stop-loss and take-profit levels based on Wyckoff phase analysis, ensuring strategic trade execution.
🔶 Table-Based Market Analysis (Table)
A built-in table summarizes:
- Market Phase: Accumulation, Distribution, or Neutral.
- Strength of Phase: Weak, Moderate, or Strong.
- Price Positioning: Whether price is near support, resistance, or in a trading range.
- Supply/Demand State: Identifies whether the market is supply or demand dominant.
🔶 Why Choose Wyckoff Market Phases - Alpha Extract?
This indicator offers a systematic approach to understanding market mechanics through the lens of Wyckoff's time-tested principles. By providing clear and actionable insights into market phases, it empowers traders to make informed decisions, enhancing both confidence and performance in various trading environments.
Accurate Bollinger Bands mcbw_ [True Volatility Distribution]The Bollinger Bands have become a very important technical tool for discretionary and algorithmic traders alike over the last decades. It was designed to give traders an edge on the markets by setting probabilistic values to different levels of volatility. However, some of the assumptions that go into its calculations make it unusable for traders who want to get a correct understanding of the volatility that the bands are trying to be used for. Let's go through what the Bollinger Bands are said to show, how their calculations work, the problems in the calculations, and how the current indicator I am presenting today fixes these.
--> If you just want to know how the settings work then skip straight to the end or click on the little (i) symbol next to the values in the indicator settings window when its on your chart <--
--------------------------- What Are Bollinger Bands ---------------------------
The Bollinger Bands were formed in the 1980's, a time when many retail traders interacted with their symbols via physically printed charts and computer memory for personal computer memory was measured in Kb (about a factor of 1 million smaller than today). Bollinger Bands are designed to help a trader or algorithm see the likelihood of price expanding outside of its typical range, the further the lines are from the current price implies the less often they will get hit. With a hands on understanding many strategies use these levels for designated levels of breakout trades or to assist in defining price ranges.
--------------------------- How Bollinger Bands Work ---------------------------
The calculations that go into Bollinger Bands are rather simple. There is a moving average that centers the indicator and an equidistant top band and bottom band are drawn at a fixed width away. The moving average is just a typical moving average (or common variant) that tracks the price action, while the distance to the top and bottom bands is a direct function of recent price volatility. The way that the distance to the bands is calculated is inspired by formulas from statistics. The standard deviation is taken from the candles that go into the moving average and then this is multiplied by a user defined value to set the bands position, I will call this value 'the multiple'. When discussing Bollinger Bands, that trading community at large normally discusses 'the multiple' as a multiplier of the standard deviation as it applies to a normal distribution (gaußian probability). On a normal distribution the number of standard deviations away (which trades directly use as 'the multiple') you are directly corresponds to how likely/unlikely something is to happen:
1 standard deviation equals 68.3%, meaning that the price should stay inside the 1 standard deviation 68.3% of the time and be outside of it 31.7% of the time;
2 standard deviation equals 95.5%, meaning that the price should stay inside the 2 standard deviation 95.5% of the time and be outside of it 4.5% of the time;
3 standard deviation equals 99.7%, meaning that the price should stay inside the 3 standard deviation 99.7% of the time and be outside of it 0.3% of the time.
Therefore when traders set 'the multiple' to 2, they interpret this as meaning that price will not reach there 95.5% of the time.
---------------- The Problem With The Math of Bollinger Bands ----------------
In and of themselves the Bollinger Bands are a great tool, but they have become misconstrued with some incorrect sense of statistical meaning, when they should really just be taken at face value without any further interpretation or implication.
In order to explain this it is going to get a bit technical so I will give a little math background and try to simplify things. First let's review some statistics topics (distributions, percentiles, standard deviations) and then with that understanding explore the incorrect logic of how Bollinger Bands have been interpreted/employed.
---------------- Quick Stats Review ----------------
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(If you are comfortable with statistics feel free to skip ahead to the next section)
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-------- I: Probability distributions --------
When you have a lot of data it is helpful to see how many times different results appear in your dataset. To visualize this people use "histograms", which just shows how many times each element appears in the dataset by stacking each of the same elements on top of each other to form a graph. You may be familiar with the bell curve (also called the "normal distribution", which we will be calling it by). The normal distribution histogram looks like a big hump around zero and then drops off super quickly the further you get from it. This shape (the bell curve) is very nice because it has a lot of very nifty mathematical properties and seems to show up in nature all the time. Since it pops up in so many places, society has developed many different shortcuts related to it that speed up all kinds of calculations, including the shortcut that 1 standard deviation = 68.3%, 2 standard deviations = 95.5%, and 3 standard deviations = 99.7% (these only apply to the normal distribution). Despite how handy the normal distribution is and all the shortcuts we have for it are, and how much it shows up in the natural world, there is nothing that forces your specific dataset to look like it. In fact, your data can actually have any possible shape. As we will explore later, economic and financial datasets *rarely* follow the normal distribution.
-------- II: Percentiles --------
After you have made the histogram of your dataset you have built the "probability distribution" of your own dataset that is specific to all the data you have collected. There is a whole complicated framework for how to accurately calculate percentiles but we will dramatically simplify it for our use. The 'percentile' in our case is just the number of data points we are away from the "middle" of the data set (normally just 0). Lets say I took the difference of the daily close of a symbol for the last two weeks, green candles would be positive and red would be negative. In this example my dataset of day by day closing price difference is:
week 1:
week 2:
sorting all of these value into a single dataset I have:
I can separate the positive and negative returns and explore their distributions separately:
negative return distribution =
positive return distribution =
Taking the 25th% percentile of these would just be taking the value that is 25% towards the end of the end of these returns. Or akin the 100%th percentile would just be taking the vale that is 100% at the end of those:
negative return distribution (50%) = -5
positive return distribution (50%) = +4
negative return distribution (100%) = -10
positive return distribution (100%) = +20
Or instead of separating the positive and negative returns we can also look at all of the differences in the daily close as just pure price movement and not account for the direction, in this case we would pool all of the data together by ignoring the negative signs of the negative reruns
combined return distribution =
In this case the 50%th and 100%th percentile of the combined return distribution would be:
combined return distribution (50%) = 4
combined return distribution (100%) = 10
Sometimes taking the positive and negative distributions separately is better than pooling them into a combined distribution for some purposes. Other times the combined distribution is better.
Most financial data has very different distributions for negative returns and positive returns. This is encapsulated in sayings like "Price takes the stairs up and the elevator down".
-------- III: Standard Deviation --------
The formula for the standard deviation (refereed to here by its shorthand 'STDEV') can be intimidating, but going through each of its elements will illuminate what it does. The formula for STDEV is equal to:
square root ( (sum ) / N )
Going back the the dataset that you might have, the variables in the formula above are:
'mean' is the average of your entire dataset
'x' is just representative of a single point in your dataset (one point at a time)
'N' is the total number of things in your dataset.
Going back to the STDEV formula above we can see how each part of it works. Starting with the '(x - mean)' part. What this does is it takes every single point of the dataset and measure how far away it is from the mean of the entire dataset. Taking this value to the power of two: '(x - mean) ^ 2', means that points that are very far away from the dataset mean get 'penalized' twice as much. Points that are very close to the dataset mean are not impacted as much. In practice, this would mean that if your dataset had a bunch of values that were in a wide range but always stayed in that range, this value ('(x - mean) ^ 2') would end up being small. On the other hand, if your dataset was full of the exact same number, but had a couple outliers very far away, this would have a much larger value since the square par of '(x - mean) ^ 2' make them grow massive. Now including the sum part of 'sum ', this just adds up all the of the squared distanced from the dataset mean. Then this is divided by the number of values in the dataset ('N'), and then the square root of that value is taken.
There is nothing inherently special or definitive about the STDEV formula, it is just a tool with extremely widespread use and adoption. As we saw here, all the STDEV formula is really doing is measuring the intensity of the outliers.
--------------------------- Flaws of Bollinger Bands ---------------------------
The largest problem with Bollinger Bands is the assumption that price has a normal distribution. This is assumption is massively incorrect for many reasons that I will try to encapsulate into two points:
Price return do not follow a normal distribution, every single symbol on every single timeframe has is own unique distribution that is specific to only itself. Therefore all the tools, shortcuts, and ideas that we use for normal distributions do not apply to price returns, and since they do not apply here they should not be used. A more general approach is needed that allows each specific symbol on every specific timeframe to be treated uniquely.
The distributions of price returns on the positive and negative side are almost never the same. A more general approach is needed that allows positive and negative returns to be calculated separately.
In addition to the issues of the normal distribution assumption, the standard deviation formula (as shown above in the quick stats review) is essentially just a tame measurement of outliers (a more aggressive form of outlier measurement might be taking the differences to the power of 3 rather than 2). Despite this being a bit of a philosophical question, does the measurement of outlier intensity as defined by the STDEV formula really measure what we want to know as traders when we're experiencing volatility? Or would adjustments to that formula better reflect what we *experience* as volatility when we are actively trading? This is an open ended question that I will leave here, but I wanted to pose this question because it is a key part of what how the Bollinger Bands work that we all assume as a given.
Circling back on the normal distribution assumption, the standard deviation formula used in the calculation of the bands only encompasses the deviation of the candles that go into the moving average and have no knowledge of the historical price action. Therefore the level of the bands may not really reflect how the price action behaves over a longer period of time.
------------ Delivering Factually Accurate Data That Traders Need------------
In light of the problems identified above, this indicator fixes all of these issue and delivers statistically correct information that discretionary and algorithmic traders can use, with truly accurate probabilities. It takes the price action of the last 2,000 candles and builds a huge dataset of distributions that you can directly select your percentiles from. It also allows you to have the positive and negative distributions calculated separately, or if you would like, you can pool all of them together in a combined distribution. In addition to this, there is a wide selection of moving averages directly available in the indicator to choose from.
Hedge funds, quant shops, algo prop firms, and advanced mechanical groups all employ the true return distributions in their work. Now you have access to the same type of data with this indicator, wherein it's doing all the lifting for you.
------------------------------ Indicator Settings ------------------------------
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---- Moving average ----
Select the type of moving average you would like and its length
---- Bands ----
The percentiles that you enter here will be pulled directly from the return distribution of the last 2,000 candles. With the typical Bollinger Bands, traders would select 2 standard deviations and incorrectly think that the levels it highlights are the 95.5% levels. Now, if you want the true 95.5% level, you can just enter 95.5 into the percentile value here. Each of the three available bands takes the true percentile you enter here.
---- Separate Positive & Negative Distributions----
If this box is checked the positive and negative distributions are treated indecently, completely separate from each other. You will see that the width of the top and bottom bands will be different for each of the percentiles you enter.
If this box is unchecked then all the negative and positive distributions are pooled together. You will notice that the width of the top and bottom bands will be the exact same.
---- Distribution Size ----
This is the number of candles that the price return is calculated over. EG: to collect the price return over the last 33 candles, the difference of price from now to 33 candles ago is calculated for the last 2,000 candles, to build a return distribution of 2000 points of price differences over 33 candles.
NEGATIVE NUMBERS(<0) == exact number of candles to include;
EG: setting this value to -20 will always collect volatility distributions of 20 candles
POSITIVE NUMBERS(>0) == number of candles to include as a multiple of the Moving Average Length value set above;
EG: if the Moving Average Length value is set to 22, setting this value to 2 will use the last 22*2 = 44 candles for the collection of volatility distributions
MORE candles being include will generally make the bands WIDER and their size will change SLOWER over time.
I wish you focus, dedication, and earnest success on your journey.
Happy trading :)
