Bitcoin Halving Cycle Strategy [Gabremoku]This script is a Bitcoin cycle timing indicator built around the historical halving structure.
The core idea is simple:
- define a Buy window a fixed number of days before each halving,
- define a Sell window a fixed number of days after each halving,
- project the next key dates directly on the chart.
The indicator does not try to predict price with oscillators, momentum formulas, or future-looking data. Instead, it focuses on a structural market rhythm that many Bitcoin traders monitor: the recurring supply shock created by halvings.
How it works
- The script uses known historical Bitcoin halving dates.
- It calculates a Buy date at halving minus N days.
- It calculates a Sell date at halving plus N days.
- It draws vertical reference lines for Buy, Halving, and Sell events.
- It plots historical labels on the actual event bars.
- It projects the upcoming Buy, Sell, and Halving labels forward to their own future dates on the chart.
- A dashboard summarizes the active cycle, next key date, and remaining days.
What makes this script useful
Most halving tools only mark the halving date itself. This script expands the concept into a complete cycle timeline by transforming each halving into three practical timing landmarks:
1. accumulation window before halving,
2. halving anchor point,
3. distribution window after halving.
This makes the script more useful for traders and investors who want a visual cycle map instead of a single event marker.
How to use it
- Apply it on BTCUSD or BTCUSDT.
- Daily and weekly charts are the most readable timeframes for this model.
- Use "Buy Days Before Halving" to control how early the accumulation window begins.
- Use "Sell Days After Halving" to control how long the post-halving window extends.
- Use the projected labels to monitor the next cycle dates in advance.
- Use the dashboard to read the current phase quickly.
Included features
- Historical halving timeline
- Buy and Sell event mapping
- Future projected labels positioned on future dates
- Optional cycle range highlighting
- Dashboard with next Buy, next Sell, next Halving, and countdown
- Custom colors and label controls
Important notes
- This script is a cycle visualization tool, not financial advice.
- It does not guarantee future market behavior.
- The projected future halving date is used as a timeline estimate for planning and visualization only.
- Past cycle behavior does not guarantee similar future performance.
- For clarity and to avoid misleading output, this script should be used on standard candlestick charts.
This publication is intended to provide a clean and practical timing framework for Bitcoin traders who study halving-driven market cycles rather than signal-based entry systems. Индикатор
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Market Cycle Projection EngineMarket Cycle Projection Engine
WHAT IT DOES
Market Cycle Projection Engine (MCPE) is a fully original indicator
built in Pine Script v6 that automatically identifies the current
market cycle phase, draws key structural levels, and projects the
next expected price movement all on a single overlay chart.
Unlike traditional indicators that react to price, MCPE analyzes
the internal structure of market behavior using a four-phase cycle
model inspired by Wyckoff methodology, combined with a linear
regression slope engine and volatility expansion/contraction logic.
WHAT MAKES IT ORIGINAL
Most cycle indicators either repaint, rely on subjective drawing,
or require manual input. MCPE does none of these.
The core innovation is a three-factor phase classification engine:
1. Linear Regression Slope measures the true directional
momentum of price over the cycle lookback period, normalized
by ATR to make it comparable across all assets and timeframes.
2. ATR Ratio (Volatility State) compares current ATR to its
own slow average to detect whether volatility is expanding
(trending phase) or contracting (consolidation phase).
3. Price Position in Cycle Range determines whether price
is in the lower 40% (potential accumulation) or upper 60%
(potential distribution) of the cycle's high/low range.
These three factors combine to produce a four-phase classification
that updates automatically on every bar without any repainting.
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THE FOUR CYCLE PHASES
🔵 ACCUMULATION
Slope is flat. Volatility is contracting. Price is in the
lower portion of the cycle range. This is where institutions
quietly build long positions before the markup phase.
Candles colored cyan.
🟢 MARKUP
Slope is rising. Volatility is expanding. This is the
trending upward phase the reward for accumulation patience.
Candles colored green.
🟠 DISTRIBUTION
Slope is flat again. Volatility is contracting. Price is now
in the upper portion of the cycle range. Smart money is
offloading positions to retail buyers.
Candles colored orange.
🔴 MARKDOWN
Slope is falling. Volatility is expanding downward. The
cycle completes its rotation back toward accumulation.
Candles colored red.
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HOW TO USE
Step 1 Read the Phase
Look at the current candle color and the Dashboard panel
(top-right). The Cycle Phase row tells you exactly where the
market is in its current rotation.
Step 2 Check Cycle Position %
The Cycle Position metric shows where price sits within the
current cycle range (0% = bottom, 100% = top).
Below 30% = potential accumulation opportunity.
Above 70% = potential distribution / caution zone.
Step 3 Use the Projection Arrow
When a phase transition occurs, MCPE draws a directional
projection line showing the expected next move. The arrow
length is calculated from the average of the previous two
cycle swing ranges and expressed as a percentage of current
price. This is NOT a price prediction it is a probabilistic
projection based on historical cycle amplitude.
Step 4 Respect the Key Levels
Three horizontal levels are always visible:
Cycle High upper boundary of the current cycle range.
Cycle Low lower boundary of the current cycle range.
Mid the equilibrium level between the two.
Price returning to Mid after an extreme move is a common
mean-reversion setup.
Step 5 Confirm with Volatility and Volume
The Dashboard shows Volatility Status and Volume reading.
Strong signals occur when phase transitions align with
expanding volatility and elevated volume simultaneously.
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CALCULATION LOGIC
Phase Classification:
lr_slope = linreg(close, cycle_len, 0) - linreg(close, cycle_len, 1)
lr_slope_norm = lr_slope / ATR(14)
atr_ratio = ATR(14) / ATR(cycle_len)
price_pos = (close - cycle_low) / cycle_range
Markup : lr_slope_norm > 0.1 AND atr_ratio > 1.1
Markdown : lr_slope_norm < -0.1 AND atr_ratio > 1.1
Accumulation: slope flat AND price_pos < 0.4
Distribution: slope flat AND price_pos >= 0.4
Projection Amplitude (Last Cycle method):
avg_range = (|meso_high - meso_low| + |prev_high - prev_low|) / 2
target = last_pivot + avg_range (bull) or - avg_range (bear)
Volatility Status:
High when ATR(14) > SMA(ATR(14), 20) * 1.3
Cycle Strength (0-100):
Measures how far price deviates from the cycle midpoint,
expressed as a percentage of the total cycle range.
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SETTINGS
Cycle lookback (bars)
Controls how many bars define one full cycle. Increase for
macro analysis, decrease for shorter-term cycles.
Recommended: 50 for daily, 30 for 4H, 20 for 1H.
S/R pivot lookback
Controls how far back the indicator looks for key support
and resistance pivot points.
Projection bars
How many bars into the future the projection line extends.
Projection basis
Three methods available:
Cycle Average uses average of last two swing ranges.
Last Cycle uses 75% of the most recent cycle range.
ATR Multiple uses ATR × 30 as a fixed projection size.
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COMPATIBILITY
Works on all assets Crypto, Forex, Stocks, Indices, Futures.
Works on all timeframes.
Best results on Daily and 4H charts for swing trading.
For intraday use, reduce cycle_len to 20-30.
No repainting. All signals calculated on bar close.
No lookahead bias. No request.security() with lookahead.
No Heikin Ashi or non-standard chart dependency.
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ALERTS INCLUDED
Phase: Accumulation detected
Phase: Markup detected
Phase: Distribution detected
Phase: Markdown detected
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DISCLAIMER
This indicator is provided for educational and informational
purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a
recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Past cycle patterns
do not guarantee future results. Markets are inherently
unpredictable. Always apply your own analysis and use proper
risk management before placing any trade. The author is not
responsible for any trading losses incurred from use of this
indicator.
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Linear Regression Channel With Pearson's R (Multi Sigma & MTF)This indicator applies multi‑sigma linear regression across multiple institutional time horizons to quantify the line of best fit in equities and index markets. By combining multi‑timeframe presets with statistically derived deviation bands, it highlights trend structure, volatility expansion, and regime transitions with clarity.
What’s New in This Update
The original version of the indicator produced a linear regression channel with multiple deviation bands. However, the statistical values it displayed were not mathematically valid. The value labeled “r” was not Pearson’s correlation coefficient and could not be used to derive R² or any formal regression diagnostics.
This update introduces a fully correct statistical engine based on ordinary least squares (OLS).
NEW STATISTICAL OUTPUTS
• True Pearson’s r
• True R² (coefficient of determination)
• RSS (Residual Sum of Squares)
• TSS (Total Sum of Squares)
These values are mathematically valid, bounded, and directly tied to the regression line.
KEY IMPROVEMENTS
• Correct OLS intercept (removes the erroneous +slope term)
• Proper predicted values using ŷ = b₀ + b₁x
• Correct centering around the actual mean of the data
• Removal of correlation logic from the deviation engine
• Clean separation between statistical computation and volatility computation
• Regression channel visuals remain identical, but the underlying math is now fully accurate
These changes ensure that r and R² reflect true trend strength and model fit, enabling more reliable interpretation of long‑term and short‑term trend regimes.
CORE FEATURES (UNCHANGED)
• Auto‑Multi‑Timeframe presets aligned with institutional trend horizons
• Multi‑Sigma bands (+/‑1σ, +/‑2σ, +/‑3σ) for volatility structure and statistical extremes
• True least‑squares regression recalculated each bar
• Deviation mode toggle (Standard Deviation vs. Max Deviation)
• Full documentation and institutional use‑case examples available on GitHub
More information can be found here:
github.com Индикатор
Pi Cycle BTC Top + Pre-Alert BandsPi Cycle BTC Top + Pre-Alert Bands is an advanced implementation of the classic Pi Cycle Top model, designed for Bitcoin cycle analysis on higher timeframes (especially 1D BTCUSD/BTCUSD·INDEX).
The original Pi Cycle Top uses two moving averages:
• 111-day SMA (short MA)
• 350-day SMA ×2 (long MA)
A Pi Top is signaled when the 111 SMA crosses above the 350×2 SMA. Historically, this has occurred near major BTC cycle highs.
This script extends that idea with a 3-step early-warning sequence:
• Pi Green – early compression: short/long MA ratio crosses upward into the green band (convergence from below is required).
• Pi Yellow – mid-cycle warning: only fires if a valid Green has already occurred in the same cycle.
• Pi Cycle Top – final top: the classic Pi Cycle cross, limited to one top signal per cycle. After a top, no new Yellow or Top signals can appear until a new Green event starts the next cycle.
Background shading shows the active phase (Green / Yellow / late-cycle zone), so you can see at a glance where BTC is within its Pi-based macro structure.
All logic is non-repainting: request.security() uses lookahead_off and no future data is accessed.
Typical use
This indicator is intended as a macro-cycle timing and risk-awareness tool, not a stand-alone entry system. Many traders use it to:
• Watch for Pi Green as the start of a potential late-cycle advance.
• Treat Pi Yellow as a rising-risk environment and tighten risk management.
• Use the Pi Cycle Top as a historical high-risk zone where large profit-taking or hedging may be considered.
Always combine this with your own analysis (trend, volume, on-chain, macro) before making decisions.
How to set alerts
Add the indicator to your chart (1D BTCUSD or BTCUSD·INDEX recommended).
Click Alerts → Condition → Pi Cycle BTC Top + Pre-Alert Bands.
Choose one of:
• Pi Cycle – Green Pre-Alert (early convergence)
• Pi Cycle – Yellow Pre-Alert (after Green only)
• Pi Cycle – TOP (Single per Cycle, after Green)
Use “Once per bar close” for higher-timeframe reliability.
Disclaimer
This tool is for educational and analytical purposes only. The Pi Cycle concept is based on historical behavior and does not guarantee future results. This is not financial advice; always do your own research and manage risk appropriately. Индикатор
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Bitcoin Bubble Risk (Adjusted for Diminishing Returns)Description:
This indicator offers a unique lens through which traders can assess risk in the Bitcoin market, specifically tailored to recognize the phenomenon of diminishing returns. By calculating the natural logarithm of the price relative to a 20-month Simple Moving Average (SMA) and applying a dynamic normalization process, this tool highlights periods of varying risk based on historical price movements and adjusted returns. The indicator is designed to provide nuanced insights into potential risk levels, aiding traders in their decision-making processes.
Usage:
To effectively use this indicator, apply it to your chart while ensuring that Bitcoin's price is set to display in monthly candles. This setting is vital for the indicator to accurately reflect the market's risk levels, as it relies on long-term data aggregation to inform its analysis.
This tool is especially beneficial for traders focused on medium to long-term investment horizons in Bitcoin, offering insights into when the market may be entering higher or lower risk phases. By incorporating this indicator into your analysis, you can gain a deeper understanding of potential risk exposures based on the adjusted price trends and market conditions.
Originality and Utility:
This script stands out for its innovative approach to risk analysis in the cryptocurrency space. By adjusting for the diminishing returns seen in mature markets, it provides a refined perspective on risk levels, enhancing traditional methodologies. This script is a significant contribution to the TradingView community, offering a unique tool for traders aiming to navigate the complexities of the Bitcoin market with informed risk management strategies.
Important Note:
This indicator is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Users are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions. The accuracy of the indicator's predictions can only be ensured when applied to monthly candlestick charts of Bitcoin. Индикатор
Market Time Cycle (Expo)█ Time Cycles Overview
Time cycles are a fascinating and powerful concept in the world of trading and investing. They are all about understanding and predicting the timing of market moves based on the premise that market events and price movements are not random, but instead occur in repeatable, cyclical patterns.
The Concept of Time Cycles: The foundation of time cycles lies in the belief that historical market patterns tend to repeat themselves over specific periods. These periods or cycles could be influenced by a myriad of factors like economic data releases, earnings reports, geopolitical events, or even natural human behavior. For example, some traders observe increased market activity around the start and end of a trading day, which is a form of intraday time cycle.
Understanding time cycles can provide traders with a roadmap, helping them anticipate potential trend shifts and make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell.
█ Indicator Overview
The Market Time Cycle (Expo) is designed to help traders track and analyze market cycles and generate signals for potential trading opportunities. It uses mathematical techniques to analyze market cycles and detect possible turning points. It does this by projecting the estimated cycle timeline and providing visual indications of cyclical phases through the use of color-coded lines and sine wave cycles.
Time cycles offer a compelling way to forecast market trends and time your trades better. By adding time cycles to your trading toolbox, you could potentially gain a new perspective on market movements and refine your trading strategy further. The indicator generates trading signals based on the sine wave's behavior. When the sine wave crosses certain thresholds, the indicator generates a signal suggesting a potential trading opportunity based on cycle behavior.
█ How to use
This indicator can be a valuable tool to help traders understand and predict market trends and time their trades more accurately. By visualizing the cyclic nature of markets, traders can better anticipate potential turning points and adjust their trading strategies accordingly. It helps traders to spot ideal entry and exit points based on the cyclical nature of financial markets.
█ Settings
You can customize the number of bars (NumbOfBars) that are taken into consideration for the cycle. Including a higher number of bars will provide more data, which can be helpful for analyzing long-term trends.
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Disclaimer
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
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