BITCOIN - WILL Bounce Soon And Here's Why 🚀

Here's one of my little secret weapons - the Wookalich Ratio. Its basically a tweaked NVT which is a metric oscillator but with the Woo the overbought and oversold "Factor" (multiplier) is adjustable.

This is set to 2.05 and it only triggers yellow when BTC is very oversold.

And so far in BTC history once the bounce comes the price has never gone below that point.

Even though I do think that on this occasion history is going to change and BTC will go lower this time, its very much worth buying through this area imo and I will be staggering in soon (not advice).

And really who knows where the exact bottom will be but BTC should be heading north on a decent bounce or perhaps even this is the bottom. I dont think it is but I havent closed the door on the possibility.

So I think BTC will reverse somewhere in this top fib group, although it may get all the way down to 17K.

The 0.382 @ $21154 is a top - bottom retracement and every bottom so far has been in this retracement area - also adding confluence to this being the bottom.

And BTC is now just passed the longer range 1:1 fib extension from the top.

And just shy of the 1:0.618 @ $21172.

Could still get to 17K though I think - who knows really.

But its in the fibs right here and very overbought on a consistently correct metric oscillator.

Need I say anymore? 😄

GL to all.

Not advice. Do your own research. Trade only what you can afford to use.

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BTC will very soon touch the all important 200WMA. Every hodler in town is aware of it. Good chance there will be some sort of downside shakeout reversal (wick) through the MA, and it could even be deep. But for me its time to start buying now and through this next phase.

I am now the proud owner of MATIC ADA APE and SHIB.

Not betting the farm - responsibly trading.

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Get this - according to my little NVT metrics oscillator, only the 2020 low has been more oversold in the last 4 years. Even more than 2018 market cycle low.

It doesnt work in quite the same way as RSI, but anyhow - bounce should be coming soon. Could nosedive more though. I have no idea but I will cheer if it hits 20K 😁.

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BTC has now hit the shorter range blue 1:0.618 taken from the 3 pivots from the right shoulder and the green 0.382 retracement, as well as the 1:1 taken from pivots from ATH to right shoulder.

So for this fib cluster BTC is done and it has now very tidily printed a 4 hour hammer through the fibs mentioned with wicks showing fast buying pressure coming in.

That buying is (i think) not new buyers coming in, but rather it is short sellers covering their shorts and leaving the market.

And so this is far from concluded yet, but I would guess the impulsive phase is now done and from here BTC will continue to trickle down in a Wyckoff accumulation phase which will push down with slowly and perhaps choppy corrective price action.

I have been working on overshoot ratios that I have been using in other markets for tops and bottoms, and I have now added them to the chart. So if the previous fib cluster was correct then these are the ratios I have found that work well elsewhere, but I haven't tried them for BTC yet, so this is (as always) work in progress.

So for the top-right shoulder yellow 1:1 there is now the overshoot ratio of 1.74 and for the right shoulder and subsequent pivots 1:0.618 there is also the 0.786.

My guess is its going to hit the 0.786 and go slightly lower even as BTC is in a more volatile market, but its just a guess. If it gets there it will hit my long term 20K target!

And so the 4H hammer could potentially be Wyckoff BC - Buying Climax, and next up would be ST - Secondary Test.

Its still a little bit early to have much confidence because the hammer could also be another retracement wave (wave 4) before another capitulation wave down. But I think the metrics and also RSI suggest BTC is already very deep right here.

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This could actually be a great call (or maybe not) in a lucrative market and I'm showing my method that i've worked hard on for free, so if you are getting something from this it costs you nothing to hit the like button and more people will see this call at a critical juncture. Thanks 😃

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That should be SC* Selling Climax not BC on the chart.

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BTC is resting well in this area. And I think its worth noting that although more volatile BTC is generally more bullish in correction, so perhaps there will be no need for the extra ratios. I really dont know, its too close to the action for me to call really as BTC is far too cheeky and elastic, but I may FOMO a few more alts today just in case 😄.

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20K is coming - I think.

Then its time to buy a few more alts between the lower 2 fibs then HODL 😄.

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This bounce here back above 0.618 is VERY good for chance of reversal in this area. For me it is almost certain now and although BTC could fall again, bullish momentum is coming in.

Big engulfing candle printing the right side of a morning star on the hourly - with still 20 min to go.

ITS ON!😄

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And this is now a descending channel which is corrective following an upside impulse from the low.

And although corrective patterns can lead to more corrective patterns, corrective descent can often lead to impulsive ascent.

We'll see how it looks tomorrow.

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So BTC is in this choppy descending channel to a lower low. And sometimes BTC does slump from these channels which are much more often bullish elsewhere, so there could be one last slump perhaps down to 17K area, or perhaps not. Its just guessing really for the exact bottom, but BTC is right in the fibs here and dipped into the overshoot ratios before.

FED announcement coming up with unprecedented rate hikes. Both BTC are bonds (TLT) are very oversold imo. Yields overbought. Lets see if/how markets react.

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Well BTC reacted very well to the FED meeting.

It looks like BTC may bounce $79 from my 20K target. I've put the cake back in the fridge. 😄

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BTC printing a very strong long wicked hammer today with bullish body up 12%.

Notice that this hammer is a thrust candle not an automatic rally capitulation candle. There is an important difference.

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I think it would be fair to say that BTC is very much following indexes here and will need a lift from them to embark on the next bull journey. And there is a lot of trickery going on with the index charts since the meeting. Having looked like it was going to bounce SPX has found a lower low overnight which will leave a big gap (that will likely get filled).

Notice however that BTC has fallen but it has not yet printed a lower low. This is potentially bullish and it could be soon to print the right shoulder of an inverse H&S.

And an accumulation could now be well under way with this potential right also be LPS Last-Point-Of-Support. Its not yet confirmed, there has been a small hammer candle that could hold it, but it may drift down also - we'll see.

In a textbook accumulation AR Automatic Rally and ST in B Secondary Test set the high and low of the price band. And as you can see my ATH - RS yellow 1:1 fib extension and 1:1.174 overshoot extension have done a pretty good job of setting the boundary also - so far.

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So BTC has fallen lower into the potential accumulation range. Seeing the movement with the stock indexes I think whenever they bounce BTC is going to go on a rally up to 35-40K area perhaps. But the question is when are they going to bounce and they are looking quite bearish.

So really its a question of how far indexes can drag BTC down. Obviously if they having a selling climax BTC is going to tank. That said the NVT is showing BTC is very oversold now and so I wont concern about finding the perfect entry, i will hold my alt positions with confidence they will be well up down the road. And if BTC gets a bit lower then i'll buy a few more.

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Heading down again and looks like BTC is going to finally hit my long term target of 20K! Could be a flash crash - who knows really. HODL! 😄

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Todays candle has picked up pace and is now engulfing the previous day and so I think that mean the previous bounce was in fact a connective retracement and so now there may be one more wave down.

So that will most likely be the 17K area as said before and who knows in a flash crash it could pierce down much further.

But this is a 24hr market and my strategy is not to fiddle. The alts that I have bought I am confident will be in good profit down the road and I will wait for another crash to buy more.

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Oof! 😲🤠🥳

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Double bottom.

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Meanwhile BTC dominance is going down.

But alt dominance is rising - ADA for example:

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Well BTC has hit my 20K target! And now it has fallen it is very interesting to note that about half of the alts I bought last week are still in the green despite BTC fall and for me this is a big clue that the reversal is coming. They are all hovering around their fibs and supports.

Also noticing quite a lot of bear smug with BTC falling so far, have you noticed that suddenly 'every' bear 'knows' BTC is going to 10K? This is another indicator the bounce is coming.

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17IK coming up I think and then I will buy some more. I may look to buy some crypto related stocks for a safer trade. COIN, MSTR, SBNY perhaps.

SBNY also breaching 200 week MA so could be a good one.

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Ok so BTC is in capitulation mode again and here is my next fib cluster.

In the blue band is typical overshoot ratios that I have found and the green band is more extreme ratios. If it does get to the green band it will offer really great buy opportunities I think that will quickly be rewarded but this is just my opinion, its NOT ADVICE. It will be very deep relative to trend if it gets there.

And it is already very deep here. In just a blink of an eye BTC is down a whopping 21% under the 200 week MA, that it has never been below for more than a week or so.

RSI is printing oversold numbers never seen before - weekly RSI now at 24 when previously it had not dipped below 28.

Also this is happening on the weekend so it is probably going to print a huge gap on the futres chart which will need filling in at some point.

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Proshares is opening a BTC short ETF probably on Tuesday and that is probably a signal that the bottom is almost in, just the same as when BITO opened very close to ATH.

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BTC just found resistance at the 2017 top (sounds quite strange to say that 😄). If it pops above and consolidates then the low may be in but for now it doesn't mean much.

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Same thing as before - BTC prints a lower low then has a small bounce and my alts have rebounded up and did not print a lower low. Most of them are near to breakeven, either slightly above or below so i'm very content here since I'm not actually buying BTC.

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I'm probably going to make some more calls in crypto related stocks soon probably. I've started posting on COIN again and perhaps will also make calls (and buy) MSTR SBNY and BITO which is the Proshares leveraged ETF.

Re BITO that one is a little risky as I'm also thinking to buy it with call options towards the latter phase of an accumulation if it prints in a way thats easy enough for me to follow. I'm thinking that first green dildo I might just buy a LEAP call. If I get it right then the reward will compensate the risk I think. Also just in case the accumulation takes ages the 2025 LEAPs will be coming out in September.

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'ello 'ello 🧐

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Well this is all starting to look rosy however good chance BTC will print a SRP shakeout reversal pattern and drop back through 2017 and perhaps will find a lower low and tag some fibs below.

That sad either was ALTS are ready to PUMP! The UNIcorn is saddling up and the APEtrain looks ready for full steam ahead whenever this accumulation phase is done 😄.

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Nice to see BTC push up but its printed and ascending channel which is typically corrective so it will probably collapse back down. Its been nice to see the alts pump though, probably more buying opportunities to come as BTC rocks back and continues this probable accumulation phase.