BITCOIN - Just HODL It! All In One Crypto Thread! 🚀🚀🚀

Well.............. 🤠

Continuing from my last thread BTC collapsed through the yellow trendline and bounced in the blue band as I suggested.

And now something interesting is happening 🧐.

The trend channels I've drawn capture corrective price action and if you look back from A - C these are ascending corrective channels.

Ascending corrective channels punctuate descending impulsive price action.*

But now for the first time there is descending corrective channel and the important detail to note is there is very little movement on the Y axis.

And so if ascending corrective channels punctuate descending impulsive price action, what do descending channels punctuate 🤔?

Did you get it?

Yes - ascending impulsive price action 🤠.

Now, from the C wave completion, price collapsed down into the blue band and then there was a sudden and very volatile up-thrust.

In isolation you could look at that and say its just a short squeeze - no big deal. And yet it may still be no big deal.

However I think it may just be the sharp whiplash which signals the tide has just turned and bearish dominance ended.

And the clue is the descending channel that follows. It is not yet conclusive and there may be further shenanigans but it shows that momentum is shifting to the upside.

To add confluence BTC could perhaps be finding support on the top of the blue band.

And it may also drift in the descending channel back down into the blue band and if it does it is potentially building upside cause (pressure).

So what is the blue band and how did I guess BTC would reverse here 🤔?

Well, the blue band is what I call a Shakeout Reversal Zone and it is a zone of overshoot for a 1/phi (0.618) retracement. The way it works is at every moment the market movers want to throw the trader off the scent and so by moving further than 0.618 the idea is to fool and trap traders into thinking price is in a continuation and not a retracement. However there is a tipping point that price cannot go passed for any significant length of time to allow for a reversal - and that ratio is √(1/phi) = 0.786.

And so BTC has effectively performed a fakeout in the blue band, trapping shorts and sellers that thought the downtrend would continue with a volatile short squeeze.

And now BTC sits right on the potential inflexion point - 0.618.

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Now, markets are correlated and crypto is effectively a dingy pulled by other markets. Oh yes it is 🤠. Anyhow - change is in the air elsewhere.

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US10Y has topped. No doubt about it. Lower yields should equate to positive market sentiment and stock market rallies which should also trickle into crypto and lead to a BIG BITCOIN BOUNCE!!! 🤠

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DXY - US Dollar Index is probably topping. Its not certain yet but whipsawing at ATH resistance is generally topping price action and so good chance it will fall. If it does it should at least get back to 0.382 retracement and this should have a positive impact and lead to a BIG BITCOIN BOUNCE!!! 🤠

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And so in the Nasdaq NDX - (stock market tech index) it has 3 weekly candles previous tagged the 1.272 (√phi) which is another common reversal point. There is also bullish divergence coming in.

AND...

Take a look here - this is the 180 week moving average on the chart! Not a very common MA but the reason I've used it is it captures the 2020 low. And guess what price has dipped below!

And this is only the second time its been under since 2010!

So good chance a big bounce is coming there having done nothing but collapse 35% this year and this will very likely lead to a BIG BITCOIN BOUNCE!!! 🤠

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I have bought back into all alt positions. I'm not going to swing in any way for a while now. I will just hodl and let it ride.

The alts that I now hold are ADA APE BRISE! DOGE GAFI! HOT KDA! MATIC SHIB THETA UNI XPR!

...

Well thats about all I have time to write about and I think i'm done.

Links for NDX and US10Y threads are below for anyone so inclined.

I'll make threads for the new coins when I get time, but they are all at their fib targets currently.

See you at BTC 40K! 🤠

Not advice.

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Don't forget to LIKE / COMMENT - I did this for free and took a while to write all that 😄.

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Can someone give @flavc, a hug😄.

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Well descending channel leads to LTF ascending channel which is bearish in the immediate short term and so as always BTC is quite exotic but we'll see if the blue band holds and if not then next stop is 17K.

Really I think BTC is now in the waiting room for a stock index upside move and this accumulation will probably continue until that happens.

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As suggested in the immediate short term BTC has fallen but only to continue this larger descending channel. This is potentially building upside cause or it can be diffused by equal corrective upside. Its looking good though and we'll see what happens in the week.

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Funniest criticism I've ever had has come from @flavc, below -

"You predicted 20k and it took nearly two years to happen"

- is effectively like saying

"You predicted the bottom and it took the entire bear market to get there." 😄

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Great point by @sasquatron, plenty of articles showing highs for google trend "bitcoin is dead" and also "crypto is dead". Blood is in crypto streets.

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Funny how when crypto was near ATH I had double the amount of likes for a bearish threads calling 20K. Now 20K is here where are all those guys, especially the chest pounding trolls. They only like to buy the tops 😄.

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Stock indexes have opened bearish so we may have to put on the elevator muzak.

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This could go on a while but its looking good for BTC here finding support on the blue SRZ and climbing above 2020 support.

Stocks open tomorrow so we'll see.

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2017 support*

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Re-testing 2017 support. Even if it falls here this is starting to look good.

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Markets opening very bearish today and DXY rallying and I think it may be having a blow off top. This fast whipsaw price action looks like its developing into a wedge - ending diagonal.

Assuming its not another wave up, once DXY rejects below long term resistance then I think BTC (and stocks) will have a hard bounce and those moves could be in their beginnings before DXY confirms.

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BTC is looking frothy here however its in an ascending channel that are typically bearish however with BTC it may impulse upward before falling back down perhaps to re-test support.

There are many permutations of course and why I'm now swing hodling (using the word "swing" so more aggro bears dont get their panties in a twist) and not trading.

Also indexes are having multiple green days and starting to look like crypto may move up soon.

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Up.

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Up again through resistance. Now to see if it forms a (wick) shakeout reversal pattern back through resistance turned support.

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There's that wicked shakeout reversal pattern as suggested. Thats why I took profits on some alt swings. Even though I said i would just swing hodl, the chance presented itself so i took it.

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BTC Dominance has suddenly shot up as BTC fell. One to keep an eye on .

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Will BTC reverse in the shakeout reversal zone ?

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Well BTC has held this area so far and it didnt collapse back down. This adds to the case for momentum shifting to the upside.

From here it could form a bull flag or it could fall back down. And I know its probably fairly obvious that price can go up or down, but it seems that BTC is at that juncture now where really all it needs to have a hard bounce is confirmation from other markets. Stock indexes slump and so will BTC. Stock indexes continue on up and crypto goes wild.

But in alts such as UNI we can see they are already moving, they dont wait for firm confirmation, the just blast off and if there is a slump elsewhere they pull back and so this is where alts can be a leading indicator.

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Bearish weekend the local high proved to be a shakeout reversal pattern through resistance, trapping buyers thinking it will go up.

And the triangular pattern did become a breakdown pattern and the star was a clue.

I have overlaid NSXUSD (Nasdaq) over the top and its clear that they are moving in tandem somewhat.

So from here there most likely there will be a re-test of the 2017 support and interestingly that could also be a re-test of the lower trendline which is actually a demand line.

What this means is that if BTC breaks through it there is much more chance it can find lower lows 😨.

And this is where its good to be clear about what your strategy is. For me I'm buying an area in confidence that in the not too distant future my positions will be in good profit. And although I am dabbling taking short term profits here and there and looking to re-enter for a better price, this is just to learn the craft really. If this was really just trading without deep value I wouldn't bother and would trade FX.

If the demand line breaks it doesn't automatically mean the downtrend will continue as it can evolve into a more complex sideways correction, but its good to be aware of it. Also BTC has printed 3 waves and often thats an ABC which leads to continuation.

FUD aside I'll not be selling my position in a 24 hour market where a sudden pump could wriggle me out while I sleep. The point here is to buy deep or relatively deep value and have patience. And the alts I have bought were at their fibs and have moved higher, so i'm not at all bothered if BTC moves lower and it will give an opportunity to buy more but i'll be looking to buy crypto related stocks from here 😄.

So anyhow my guess is that the bottom is in and I think there is a good chance the demand line will hold. Mostly this is because BTC is already very deep and some metrics show it as being the deepest in a long time here. Also NDX may have a bearish week but I think it may be corrective before having a hard bounce and I'm also buying deep value stocks that are down perhaps 80%. Its all ripe for a bounce.

We'll see how the week plays out 😄.

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This update is partly in that i'm getting messages asking what I think will happen in the immediate future, and for a lot of the time I really dont know where BTC is going to be 2pm tomorrow or next week, its an approximation and so I have to keep my mind in higher time frames of which I can have confidence. Further down the road with more skill I'll be agile in these areas but its important to know where you are on your journey (not like many publishers here 😄) and if I dont know whats happening tomorrow and you need to know for your options call or whatever then you're out of your depth in too higher time frame and you're gambling. Thats nothing to do with me.

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Too lower time frame*

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Re-test 2017 support

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Well BTC has crossed the demand line so unless this is a more complex correction it is heading to new lows.

However, although we may see new lows my guess is that this will be a more complex correction and in terms of duration this potential accumulation hasn't taken much time yet. I think BTC is going to drift here.

And I would suggest that a blue band could be the "accumulation range." If BTC gets there (which it probably will) I'm going to buy a few crypto stocks. Looking at COIN BITO RIOT MARA.

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As BTC is crossing the potential demand line its worth to consider the bearish perspective that this is starting to look like 3 wave correction followed by continuing downtrend.

But for me I bought my alts at their fibs and they are a bit higher now so if BTC falls I expect them to be around where I bought them.

And tbh I didnt know it would work out this way but this goes to show that it may be better to buy alts near the lows rather than lorry 1 BTC or lorry 2 ETH which doesnt look too good right now.

What I've learned through with BTC is unlike other charts it is evolving at pace. Perhaps there were too many watching these levels knowing that historically this is a buy zone. There are plenty of publishers here pointing to these levels as a buy. And the market movers may want a bit more scare to move them away from the pie.

That said these levels are already deep value imo relative to the trend. They may not be the eventual low but metrics such as NVT show we are deep here.

I may wait and let this play out a bit before buying anything more and i'll just hold what i have.

HODL! 😁

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If BTC gets back above the demand line then I would guess it will be a complex corrective into sideways drift. Very hard to tell, i'm about 50/50 currently. I might go and learn the cello and come back in a few months 😸.

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While lorry 1 BTC and lorry 2 ETH look very weak, UNI - one of the stronger alts is still up 40%.

So it certainly brings into question whether it is "safer" to buy BTC and ETH. I'm not so sure it is.

If UNI falls 40% back to its fib and BTC also falls 40%, BTC will be down at $11.5K! 😲

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I dont think 11.5K will happen btw, but I do prefer UNI over BTC here.

And I think what is happening is that alts have already begun to rally early while BTC finds its low.

This is why it was useful to get into alts fast as they hit their significant fibs rather than waiting for BTC confirmation by which time I would imagine some of these alts will be well on their way upward and the chance for great multipliers would be gone.

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Boom! 💥

Index Futures "tumble after hot inflation data" , NDX currently down 0.5%, BTC up 1.8% 😎.

Heading north soon.

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Also, please note - when I say soon I dont mean tomorrow afternoon, but as long as BTC holds the blue band, the crypto parade is in business. 👍

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The recent re-engagement with the demand trendline and popping back above shows very clearly that the dominant trend has not resumed to the downside and although it did look very much like a bearish 3 wave flag seen pretty much everywhere as a continuation pattern, in this instance it was not.

This doesn't rule out that it cant move down but it does make it less likely.

From here its going to be a more complex correction (more than 3 waves) and there may be plenty of shenanigans like this for example

Of course there are more permutations than a Rubik's cube, but as long as BTC stays above the blue band then the party is starting and that will probably be reflected further in alts which will be making the start of their journey whilst BTC negates accumulation.

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Wrapping around the trendline here. This is good.