Hi guys,
We didn't get to my profit taking targets at 7800 and 8100, but at least I closed every trade I made along the way in decent or very good profit. The last one was stopped out int he following fashion:
I really hope the new chart I am publishing here speaks for itself! Yes the Elliott Wave count may not be perfect, yes sometimes wave 5 is bigger than wave 3. I would like to remember you that in Bitcoin wave 5 often is the biggest of them all, and that does not invalidate the count according to the Elliott Wave rule book as long as Wave 3 remains bigger than Wave 1.
I will be updating this idea live when I am going short and long as well as when we hit profit taking targets along the way and the prices where I will add to my short.
Long term I can easily see BTC reach the 16.3k Fibonacci extension before 2021. Please remember we nearly gained more than 300% in the matter of a few months after the 2018 bear market, so 16.3k before 2021 is actually very modest, we might much higher by then...
Unrelated note based on a comment I put somewhere on TradingView:
1: There are indications for a good case where BTC and the stock market topped out right now (short term), coincidentally (or not) around the same time. Unless DJI can continue its rally to the 0.618, I also see it topped out here at the 0.5 FIB. (DJI perfectly reacts to every Fibonacci level, don't get fooled by any other indicator, Fibonacci and Fibonacci alone will tell us where this stock market rally ends).
2: I partially agree that the general bear market might not be over yet, but I DON'T think we must rely on what we know from history, I think we must act based on what we know and have seen recently.
My explanation would be: Although past bear markets mostly ended in the U formation, this bear market is vastly different from anything we have ever seen before, don't expect the same. This bear market cut >35% of stocks in llittle more than a week, that's something we have never seen before in history, and the incredible debt of our countries are obviously to blame for that.
3: The stock market and the Bitcoin market might take a different course! Bitcoin PROFITS from this whole catastrophe in the long term, just like it is profiting from Venezuelans who need to rely on crypto instead of FIAT. The conventional economy and all companies living on it (including their stock) will get more fragile with the day and at one point everything will collaps into an economic doomsday where BTC will be the one and only alternative replacing the current shitty economy as we know it. This is simply phase x of that process and therefor, please do NOT mix up BTC performance with stock market performance... ... ...
4: Based on 2 and 3, I don't think we will create a lower bottom on BTC, 5.2k - 5.7k is the range where I would long heavily, not financial advise. Regarding the stock market, I would say 0 is the limit, nah realistically speaking we are not yet at the doomsday of our current economy, but it might still dump a lot lower than the previous low. However, it might also put in a higher low, just expect a big dump for most companies when they announce Q3 results in May. I have been telling people to wait for the May - June to invest heavily into stock ever since the start of the crash, I will be saying that untill we are May-June...
We didn't get to my profit taking targets at 7800 and 8100, but at least I closed every trade I made along the way in decent or very good profit. The last one was stopped out int he following fashion:
I really hope the new chart I am publishing here speaks for itself! Yes the Elliott Wave count may not be perfect, yes sometimes wave 5 is bigger than wave 3. I would like to remember you that in Bitcoin wave 5 often is the biggest of them all, and that does not invalidate the count according to the Elliott Wave rule book as long as Wave 3 remains bigger than Wave 1.
I will be updating this idea live when I am going short and long as well as when we hit profit taking targets along the way and the prices where I will add to my short.
Long term I can easily see BTC reach the 16.3k Fibonacci extension before 2021. Please remember we nearly gained more than 300% in the matter of a few months after the 2018 bear market, so 16.3k before 2021 is actually very modest, we might much higher by then...
Unrelated note based on a comment I put somewhere on TradingView:
1: There are indications for a good case where BTC and the stock market topped out right now (short term), coincidentally (or not) around the same time. Unless DJI can continue its rally to the 0.618, I also see it topped out here at the 0.5 FIB. (DJI perfectly reacts to every Fibonacci level, don't get fooled by any other indicator, Fibonacci and Fibonacci alone will tell us where this stock market rally ends).
2: I partially agree that the general bear market might not be over yet, but I DON'T think we must rely on what we know from history, I think we must act based on what we know and have seen recently.
My explanation would be: Although past bear markets mostly ended in the U formation, this bear market is vastly different from anything we have ever seen before, don't expect the same. This bear market cut >35% of stocks in llittle more than a week, that's something we have never seen before in history, and the incredible debt of our countries are obviously to blame for that.
3: The stock market and the Bitcoin market might take a different course! Bitcoin PROFITS from this whole catastrophe in the long term, just like it is profiting from Venezuelans who need to rely on crypto instead of FIAT. The conventional economy and all companies living on it (including their stock) will get more fragile with the day and at one point everything will collaps into an economic doomsday where BTC will be the one and only alternative replacing the current shitty economy as we know it. This is simply phase x of that process and therefor, please do NOT mix up BTC performance with stock market performance... ... ...
4: Based on 2 and 3, I don't think we will create a lower bottom on BTC, 5.2k - 5.7k is the range where I would long heavily, not financial advise. Regarding the stock market, I would say 0 is the limit, nah realistically speaking we are not yet at the doomsday of our current economy, but it might still dump a lot lower than the previous low. However, it might also put in a higher low, just expect a big dump for most companies when they announce Q3 results in May. I have been telling people to wait for the May - June to invest heavily into stock ever since the start of the crash, I will be saying that untill we are May-June...
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We nailed the market again (see update above from 3 days ago)!
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Last chance for the bulls to complete the whole wave higher would be this scenario discussed by Sam here: youtu.be/QjCcrfuS-mU?t=420
Nobody can explain it better than him, so I will not even try :-)
I feel like this alternate is much less likely to happen, but keep it in mind. To me personally a drop below 6300 would invalidate that bullish alternative, althought theoretically bulls have room until 5700.
Nobody can explain it better than him, so I will not even try :-)
I feel like this alternate is much less likely to happen, but keep it in mind. To me personally a drop below 6300 would invalidate that bullish alternative, althought theoretically bulls have room until 5700.
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*room until 5850
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The next hourly close might determine much more than you think!
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Bulls looking very strong at their very last line of defence, as long as the previous low around 6550 doesn't break this might all still be a perfectly small ABC correction on a bullish count as mentioned above and showcased by Sam in the video I posted earlier. I took some profits along the way, as mentioned earlier, I'm going to take a bit more profit around here because I see the potential of that bullish alternative rise.
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For those who don't see how that short term bullish alternative might play out here, I have a simplified view. This also shows you how a break of the previous low at 6550 would IMO negate the whole idea of this alternative call based on the lower TF subdivision that cannot form a proper corrective ABC anymore and will head for a lower A and thus my previously called upon correction. Bulls showing strong, I definitely don't mind going with the alternative if proven successful.
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For those who haven't sold their (whole) short position yet, a stop loss at 6880 Coinbase price would be my advise.
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I know it's not too beautiful, but this is what the short term bullish count COULD look like:
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My main call has always been the short term bearish count as depicted in my original idea. However, another bearish Elliot Wave pattern might in play with the following short term waves. This mean that even if we break 7k, the bullish count would not be a certainty yet.
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Short term game also going according to plan:
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Bears almost losing control at this area, time to seriously look into the most likely bullish counts. Here you will find mine:
Small short order lying at 7120.
Bigger short order lying at 7200.