This is the futures chart. I'm using it because it lines up well with the pitchfork fibs.
Overall, it still looks like we need to complete the 4th wave today (maybe into tomorrow) before the final wave down. Keep in mind the 100ma is my target but we may fall short as the weekly 18 is at 3874 currently.
Many are expecting a bounce to 3900 at least, and then a sell into the abyss. This is why having the minor bounce and then a 5th wave down, and then a bigger rally in early January makes sense to me.
Daily Chart with potential MA targets if they can get above 3900
Overall, it still looks like we need to complete the 4th wave today (maybe into tomorrow) before the final wave down. Keep in mind the 100ma is my target but we may fall short as the weekly 18 is at 3874 currently.
Many are expecting a bounce to 3900 at least, and then a sell into the abyss. This is why having the minor bounce and then a 5th wave down, and then a bigger rally in early January makes sense to me.
Daily Chart with potential MA targets if they can get above 3900
Комментарий:
after a bear trap this morning, this looks to be playing out. Noone can state for sure we will have another leg down, but I believe this ultimately will fail and we'll go lower over the holidays.
Комментарий:
there a structure I'm watching for a potential short opp - red line.
Комментарий:
starting to look like a more complex correction. Sell off into close and then gap higher is looking like the play. Rally into Thursday until economic numbers at 8:30...
Комментарий:
futures have reached the 18ma. If this is a 4th wave with a 5th lower coming, we should see some rejection around here - maybe a bit higher first...
Комментарий:
a lot of people expecting 3900+, but I think we fail after an open rally. Structure on futures shown. Might be wrong, but this is what I'm thinking.
Комментарий:
another option for the short term structure is this -
Комментарий:
Комментарий:
may be further upside, maybe not. Many are convinced there will be more upside, so there's that. SPY closed below the daily 50ma and fib of pitchfork. It closed slightly above the weekly 18, but the week still has 2 days left.
Комментарий:
solid rejection at 50ma on futures this morning, any bounce is a short opportunity. It shouldn't get over the last high.
Комментарий:
Might be a gap and go day. With the optimism for higher prices yesterday I would think bears don't want to give bulls much of a chance to get out. Trapped bulls may sell into capitulation and then we bounce harder larger into January....
Комментарий:
First wave may be done, fib line may get a bounce
Комментарий:
if this is a bear flag, 372 is the target and there will be minimal bounces
Комментарий:
straight line down, but not overly fast
Комментарий:
spy already to 376 which is equal to wave 1 - that was fast. Many are trapped. Taking some more off the table
Комментарий:
Hourly bull divergences building here, It's a falling knife but I'm adding some long positions, very small.
Комментарий:
daily BB at 375, should find some support near there, we're 60 cents away
Комментарий:
possibly one more low tomorrow, not really sure if this is correct.
Комментарий:
looks like santa came already
Комментарий:
looks like a reversal on daily, but look at the daily ma cluster above....
Комментарий:
spinning top on spy, while it does look like a reversal, there's a potential that we are in an ending diagonal, so if tomorrow we sell more, I expect we could make a very choppy bottom before the main reversal. Just be cautious before going "all in". I'm sure many are thinking this is the bottom, I can't tell just yet.
Комментарий:
futures are at the pitchfork fib no decision made - probably after 830 there will be
Комментарий:
possible move on futures is an abc, stopped at .618 fib for now. Open will tell more....
Комментарий:
they stopped the pump on futures at the pitchfork fib. Needs to get over that to rally, otherwise more downside likely.
