$SPY range $479-$529, the path to the top (and bear market)
SPY
looks to be showing signs of weakness here. Thinking that we could see the first large decline of the year into one of the support levels below $479-$495. Breaking the trend line would be the trigger. If that happens and we do get a low, then I think we'll have one final rally to the upper resistance levels between $525-$530.
Another possibility, is we just continue upwards to the top resistance levels and then decline after. Idea of a range is you want to buy the lows (supports on chart) and sell the highs (resistances chart).
Regardless of the path we take, we're nearing a top in the market and after we hit those top levels, I expect a large decline lower (one that takes us past the prior 2022 lows).
Ultimately looking for SPY to reach the $280-300 level by the end of 2024. But let's save that analysis after we see what happens in this range.
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Thinking the second possibility is playing out. $529-530 trigger short.
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Changing my mind. Market showing weakness. Would make sense to get the pullback here and then one final pump to $529-530 for the top.
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Let's see if we get that down day tomorrow. Would make sense to get in the $502-508 region before a bounce.
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Okay, I'm bullish here. I think there's a possibility price can go all the way up to $550ish region over the next 2-3 weeks. Let's see.
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The move higher was sold into and now we're at the first support level on the chart. Going to start looking for longs again like in the original idea. Think we see the final move higher into $530 region to mark the top.
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Now I think we see one more downside leg to the bottom support before we get that move up into $530.
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Bought some OTM puts for 5/17 anticipating that move down to the lower support. Let's see.
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Welp haven't gotten that reversal yet. I'll add more puts at the upper resistance (almost there) with a longer expiration tomorrow. Likely out to September.
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Bought 300 contracts of $491P for 5/31
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Also bought 100contracts of $270P for 9/20