Treasuries near reversal. Potential "lightwitch" event.
Some time ago I published my view on Treasuries where I was expecting the 5th wave of the ending wedge to occur with just another round of sell-off in equities, just what we saw in Aug last year and Jan this year. Surprise. It didn't happen. We got our w5 in bonds, but a rally in equities instead of a sell-off.
Yesterday Robert Prechter advocated in his EW Theorist the completion of the whole multi-year uptrend in Treasuries, he too views the minor wave 5 as the final one, but he tracks a larger horizon, so according to his research the Treasuries are done on a much wider time frame. Only going down from here, for years ahead!
So we have the following at hand:
1) SPX is at a very important juncture (both upside and downside moves of high intensity are possible)
2) Treasuries are ready to reverse
If both downtrends happen at the same time, then this will be detrimental for the portfolio managers around the world - for 30 years they got used to the fact that when equities go down, the bonds go up. What if that changes now? Their risk-adjusted portfolios stuffed with equities and bonds may vanish in an instant. Leveraged bonds will not protect equities in the portfolio, but will contribute to the destruction of portfolio value!
Again, this is not a call to action - we need to give the market a week or two to get the things sorted. But by all means I expect some good actionable volatility in H2'16.
Yesterday Robert Prechter advocated in his EW Theorist the completion of the whole multi-year uptrend in Treasuries, he too views the minor wave 5 as the final one, but he tracks a larger horizon, so according to his research the Treasuries are done on a much wider time frame. Only going down from here, for years ahead!
So we have the following at hand:
1) SPX is at a very important juncture (both upside and downside moves of high intensity are possible)
2) Treasuries are ready to reverse
If both downtrends happen at the same time, then this will be detrimental for the portfolio managers around the world - for 30 years they got used to the fact that when equities go down, the bonds go up. What if that changes now? Their risk-adjusted portfolios stuffed with equities and bonds may vanish in an instant. Leveraged bonds will not protect equities in the portfolio, but will contribute to the destruction of portfolio value!
Again, this is not a call to action - we need to give the market a week or two to get the things sorted. But by all means I expect some good actionable volatility in H2'16.
