Crypto Total, S&P adjusted for M2 + Overall market view

12 мая 2022 г.

This is an equally weighted symbol of S&P + Crypto Total. It ranges from 0 to 100, with 100 being the Nov 2021 peak. We are entering a low risk zone historically, but crypto has never truly seen a bear asset market! I think we will get to the green areas in the chart, and if it is a true bear market, possibly sideways and lower for a bit longer than most expect. It's easy to remain complacent here and buy furious but it's better off to be safe and preserve your capital until some larger confirmation that downward momentum has faded.

What I mean by true bear market is, if the S&P Adjusted for M2 plays out like 2008:


Percentage of stocks above 200 average looks a bit lower but could get closer to 5-10% before a real rally:


Small caps are making new lows:


Crypto TOTAL could test the blue 200 MA easily:


Junk bonds are hugely overvalued:


SPX + NDX Volatility is still tame compared to 2020 and 2008:


DXY is still in strong uptrend. Margins are tight in financial markets and dollars with a positive yield cuts profit margins and causes liquidity issues.


Pegged stablecoins are highly unstable:

Hopefully you can see why I don't think the momentum has fully played out yet.

If it's not a bear market, I don't see any strong uptrend happening without a major policy shift and massive sentiment change. It makes sense to lean bearish even though prices are relatively attractive long-term.

What do you think?

Good luck and I hope you liked the chart as much as I did! Don't forget to hedge your bets :)

12 мая 2022 г.

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Typo correction: "Hopefully you can see why I don't think the momentum has fully played out yet. " -> "has not fully played out yet". ;)

12 мая 2022 г.

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Note: A lower high short-term is not out of the question. I don't want to make that seem impossible through these charts. I just don't think bearishness has peaked. Prepare for both scenarios to play out! But don't rush into longs without pacing yourself.

12 мая 2022 г.

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FAANMG adjusted for M2 is trying to establish a sideways trend but looks shaky, very bearish so far:

13 мая 2022 г.

Заметка

New long idea for BTC+SPX:

This new idea is marked long since it's focused on a greater timeframe.

In the context of THIS chart, I'm still looking to buy in the green range, short to medium term, hence the idea is marked short. However I don't open hold short positions on BTC. I'm simply prepared for more fallout, should it take place.

Hope that clarifies things a little.