10 Year Treasury / 3 Month Treasury Yield Inversion & Recession
Not my idea, but it does seem to hold some water. Note the orange spikes above the 10 Yr T Bill and pull up history 1990/2000/2008 serious corrections
6-18 months after the 3 Mo/10yr treasury rates invert, the US economy goes into recession
1991 was a 33% drop, 2001 - 83%, 2008 - 54%
I've seen longer data sets that hold true even farther back from FRED
*NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE - NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR*
6-18 months after the 3 Mo/10yr treasury rates invert, the US economy goes into recession
1991 was a 33% drop, 2001 - 83%, 2008 - 54%
I've seen longer data sets that hold true even farther back from FRED
*NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE - NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR*
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Average SPX drop 40%