Introduction
The Single Swing Strategy (SSS) is a trading strategy designed for assets that trend. It utilises a single technical indicator to identify potential buying opportunities in upward-trending markets. The strategy focuses on moments when the price of an asset breaks out to a new high, suggesting a strong upward momentum.
Components
1. Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs): SSS uses two EMAs to evaluate the overall asset trend. SSS describes an uptrend as identified, when the fast EMA crosses above the slow EMA and vice versa for a downtrend.
2. Breakout: The strategy validates the trend identified by the EMAs through breakouts in the price action of the asset over a specified lookback period. No indicator is required for this step.
3. Average Directional Index (ADX): The ADX is used to measure the strength of a trend. It does not indicate the trend's direction but rather its strength, whether it's an uptrend or downtrend. A high ADX value (typically above 25) suggests a strong trend, either up or down while a low ADX value (typically below 20) indicates a weak or non-trending market. The ADX itself is a moving average of the expanding range between the +DI and -DI.
4. Positive Directional Indicator (DI+): DI+ helps identify the presence and strength of uptrends. It is calculated based on the upward price movement between current and previous highs. A rising DI+ alongside a rising ADX suggests a strengthening uptrend. When DI+ crosses above DI-, it's often interpreted as a bullish signal.
5. Negative Directional Indicator (DI-): DI- is used to detect the presence and strength of downtrends.It is derived from the downward price movement between current and previous lows. An increasing DI- along with a rising ADX indicates a strengthening downtrend while a crossover of DI- above DI+ is typically seen as a bearish signal.
How it works
1. Regime filter with ADX, DI+, and DI-: The first step in taking a trade is to determine the direction of the trend using the +DI. If in an uptrend, the strategy checks if the ADX is above 25 to confirm a strong uptrend. -DI is not used since the strategy is long only. If in an uptrend and the trend is strong, trades can be opened.
2. Trend Identification with EMAs: Initially, the strategy uses two Exponential Moving Averages (fast and slow) to determine the asset trend. A fast EMA crossing above the slow EMA signifies an uptrend, and vice versa for a downtrend. This is the Entry signal to open a long position.
3. Trend Confirmation with Breakout: The strategy confirms the EMA-indicated trend through price breakouts over a specified lookback period. An EMA crossover without a price action breakout does not lead to an entry signal
4. Trade Management: After entering a trade, the strategy uses predefined levels for taking profit and setting stop losses. Trades are closed either when the price reaches the take-profit level or falls to the stop-loss level. Hence, risk management is built in.
Results
The backtest results can be found below. Initial capital of 10000 was used, this is a convenient amount for most retail traders, commission of $3 per order, position size of 3% of initial capital and slippage of 3 ticks. These are all representative of real world retail trading conditions.
Originality
The Single Swing Strategy (SSS)'s originality is in its blending of classical technical analysis; Trend Analysis through EMAs and Price Action through Breakout, into an innovative trading logic.
1. The Essence of Trend and Breakout in SSS
(i) Trend Recognition: At the heart of SSS is the Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). While the use of EMAs is common, SSS employs them for trend analysis so an entry decision can be made. The strategy's core algorithm assesses the inception of an upward trend by observing a specific crossing pattern of the EMAs, a moment where the asset's momentum shifts, offering a strategic advantage.
(ii) Breakout Significance: The strategy's reliance on price breakouts isn't just about identifying a new high; it's about understanding market psychology. A breakout beyond a previous high signals not only momentum but also a collective market sentiment that favors upward movement. SSS attempts to capture this momentum, translating it into a tangible trading opportunity.
(iii)Strength of trend: The ADX and +DI double checks the trend is in the right direction and checks to see if the trend is strong enough hence, it prevents trading when the trend is not supportive.
2. Simplicity as a Cornerstone
(i) Clarity and Efficiency: In the realm of algorithmic trading, complexity isn't always synonymous with effectiveness. SSS' simplicity ensures its logic is transparent and its execution, efficient. This simplicity is a strategic choice, designed to reduce overfitting to past data and improve adaptability to real-market conditions.
(ii) Ease of Use and Decision Making: The straightforward nature of SSS may empower traders to make informed decisions without being overwhelmed by convoluted indicators. This is particularly useful because of the embedding of risk management using defined exit points after entry through a Take Profit and Stop Loss. This hardcodes a 3:1 risk reward ratio into every trade.
3. Positive Expectancy
(i) Performance Metrics: The SSS strategy shows its edge in its backtesting results. A 62% win rate, a profit factor of 1.7, profit ratio of 1.05 and an average trade gain of 4.7% are not just numbers; they show the mathematical edge over the backtest period, especially considering the high commissions and slippage factored into its design.
Trading
The SSS strategy has been backtested on the 1D timeframe of BTCUSD but users are encouraged to try it on other assets such as SPXL (5min), AAPL (5min) and others but the appropriate timeframe and trading costs may vary.
NOTE
Like any trading strategy, SSS does not guarantee profits. It's a tool to assist in decision-making, not a foolproof solution. Trading involves risks, particularly in volatile markets. Users should trade responsibly, considering their risk tolerance and financial situation. While SSS automates some aspects of trading, it requires continuous monitoring and does not replace the need for sound judgement and decision-making by the trader.
The Single Swing Strategy (SSS) is a trading strategy designed for assets that trend. It utilises a single technical indicator to identify potential buying opportunities in upward-trending markets. The strategy focuses on moments when the price of an asset breaks out to a new high, suggesting a strong upward momentum.
Components
1. Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs): SSS uses two EMAs to evaluate the overall asset trend. SSS describes an uptrend as identified, when the fast EMA crosses above the slow EMA and vice versa for a downtrend.
2. Breakout: The strategy validates the trend identified by the EMAs through breakouts in the price action of the asset over a specified lookback period. No indicator is required for this step.
3. Average Directional Index (ADX): The ADX is used to measure the strength of a trend. It does not indicate the trend's direction but rather its strength, whether it's an uptrend or downtrend. A high ADX value (typically above 25) suggests a strong trend, either up or down while a low ADX value (typically below 20) indicates a weak or non-trending market. The ADX itself is a moving average of the expanding range between the +DI and -DI.
4. Positive Directional Indicator (DI+): DI+ helps identify the presence and strength of uptrends. It is calculated based on the upward price movement between current and previous highs. A rising DI+ alongside a rising ADX suggests a strengthening uptrend. When DI+ crosses above DI-, it's often interpreted as a bullish signal.
5. Negative Directional Indicator (DI-): DI- is used to detect the presence and strength of downtrends.It is derived from the downward price movement between current and previous lows. An increasing DI- along with a rising ADX indicates a strengthening downtrend while a crossover of DI- above DI+ is typically seen as a bearish signal.
How it works
1. Regime filter with ADX, DI+, and DI-: The first step in taking a trade is to determine the direction of the trend using the +DI. If in an uptrend, the strategy checks if the ADX is above 25 to confirm a strong uptrend. -DI is not used since the strategy is long only. If in an uptrend and the trend is strong, trades can be opened.
2. Trend Identification with EMAs: Initially, the strategy uses two Exponential Moving Averages (fast and slow) to determine the asset trend. A fast EMA crossing above the slow EMA signifies an uptrend, and vice versa for a downtrend. This is the Entry signal to open a long position.
3. Trend Confirmation with Breakout: The strategy confirms the EMA-indicated trend through price breakouts over a specified lookback period. An EMA crossover without a price action breakout does not lead to an entry signal
4. Trade Management: After entering a trade, the strategy uses predefined levels for taking profit and setting stop losses. Trades are closed either when the price reaches the take-profit level or falls to the stop-loss level. Hence, risk management is built in.
Results
The backtest results can be found below. Initial capital of 10000 was used, this is a convenient amount for most retail traders, commission of $3 per order, position size of 3% of initial capital and slippage of 3 ticks. These are all representative of real world retail trading conditions.
Originality
The Single Swing Strategy (SSS)'s originality is in its blending of classical technical analysis; Trend Analysis through EMAs and Price Action through Breakout, into an innovative trading logic.
1. The Essence of Trend and Breakout in SSS
(i) Trend Recognition: At the heart of SSS is the Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). While the use of EMAs is common, SSS employs them for trend analysis so an entry decision can be made. The strategy's core algorithm assesses the inception of an upward trend by observing a specific crossing pattern of the EMAs, a moment where the asset's momentum shifts, offering a strategic advantage.
(ii) Breakout Significance: The strategy's reliance on price breakouts isn't just about identifying a new high; it's about understanding market psychology. A breakout beyond a previous high signals not only momentum but also a collective market sentiment that favors upward movement. SSS attempts to capture this momentum, translating it into a tangible trading opportunity.
(iii)Strength of trend: The ADX and +DI double checks the trend is in the right direction and checks to see if the trend is strong enough hence, it prevents trading when the trend is not supportive.
2. Simplicity as a Cornerstone
(i) Clarity and Efficiency: In the realm of algorithmic trading, complexity isn't always synonymous with effectiveness. SSS' simplicity ensures its logic is transparent and its execution, efficient. This simplicity is a strategic choice, designed to reduce overfitting to past data and improve adaptability to real-market conditions.
(ii) Ease of Use and Decision Making: The straightforward nature of SSS may empower traders to make informed decisions without being overwhelmed by convoluted indicators. This is particularly useful because of the embedding of risk management using defined exit points after entry through a Take Profit and Stop Loss. This hardcodes a 3:1 risk reward ratio into every trade.
3. Positive Expectancy
(i) Performance Metrics: The SSS strategy shows its edge in its backtesting results. A 62% win rate, a profit factor of 1.7, profit ratio of 1.05 and an average trade gain of 4.7% are not just numbers; they show the mathematical edge over the backtest period, especially considering the high commissions and slippage factored into its design.
Trading
The SSS strategy has been backtested on the 1D timeframe of BTCUSD but users are encouraged to try it on other assets such as SPXL (5min), AAPL (5min) and others but the appropriate timeframe and trading costs may vary.
NOTE
Like any trading strategy, SSS does not guarantee profits. It's a tool to assist in decision-making, not a foolproof solution. Trading involves risks, particularly in volatile markets. Users should trade responsibly, considering their risk tolerance and financial situation. While SSS automates some aspects of trading, it requires continuous monitoring and does not replace the need for sound judgement and decision-making by the trader.
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Optimised Entry and Exit points
Added Short trades
Added Short trades
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